TODAY’S STUDY: WORLD WIND’S 2013 SO FAR
2013 Half-Year Report
October 2013 (World Wind Energy Association)
Worldwide Wind Capacity close to 300 Gigawatt
- 14 GW of new installations in the first half of 2013, after 16,5 GW in 2012
- Worldwide wind capacity has reached 296 GW, 318 GW expected for full year
- Dramatic slump in US leads to global decrease, partly compensated by new markets
- China has reached total capacity of 80 GW
The worldwide wind capacity reached 296’255 MW by the end of June 2013, out of which 13’980 MW were added in the first six months of 2013. This increase is signicantly less than in the first half of 2012 and 2011, when 16,5 GW respectively 18,4 GW were added. All wind turbines installed worldwide by mid-2013 can generate around 3,5% of the world’s electricity demand.
The global wind capacity grew by 5% within six months (after 7% in the same period in 2012 and 9% in 2011) and by 16,6% on an annual basis (mid-2013 compared with mid-2012). In comparison, the annual growth rate in 2012 was signicantly higher (19%).
Top Wind Markets 2013: China, Germany, India – and United Kingdom
Still the five traditional wind countries, China, USA, Germany, Spain and India, represent together a share of 73% of the global wind capacity. However, in terms of new capacity, USA and Spain played hardly a role, as they represent less than 1% of the market, so that the share of the Big Five in new capacity dropped down to only 57%. For the first time, the United Kingdom has entered the top markets by becoming the second largest market for new wind turbines.
In total, four countries installed more than 1 GW in the first half of 2013: China (5,5 GW of new capacity), the UK (1,3 GW), India (1,2 GW) and Germany (1,1 GW). In 2012, only three countries had a market volume of more than 1 GW.
The top ten wind countries show a diverse picture in the first half of 2013: Five countries performed stronger than in 2012: China, Germany, UK, Canada, Denmark. Five countries saw a decreasing market: Spain, India, Italy, France, and the USA who experienced an unprecedented, complete stop of wind turbine sales, after setting a new record of 13 GW in 2012. The US saw practically a total standstill, with only 1,6 MW of new capacity installed, compared with 2’883 MW one year ago. Portugal dropped out of the list of the top 10 markets and is now on place 11, replaced by Denmark.
Dynamic Markets to be found on all Continents
It is important to notice that for the first time, the most dynamic markets can be found on all continents: The ten largest markets for new wind turbines included next to China, UK, India, and Germany: Sweden (526 MW), Australia (475 MW), Denmark (416 MW), Romania (384 MW), and Canada (377 MW). Brazil as the 10th largest market added 281 MW, being the biggest Latin American wind country.
One African country made an important step as well and became the most dynamic wind market: Morocco showed the highest growth rate with 34,4% market increase within only six months, followed by Romania (21,6%), Australia (18,4%) and the UK (16,2%).
Europe is still the continent with the largest installed capacity, but the European markets showed a rather diverse picture in the first half of 2013: For the first time, the United Kingdom with 1,3 GW of new capacity was the biggest market, mainly thanks to major o shore wind farms which went online. With a total capacity of 9,6 GW, the UK consolidated its position as number three in Europe and number 6 worldwide.
Germany is still the unchallenged number one wind market in Europe, with a new capacity of 1,1 GW and a total of 32,4 GW. Sweden (526 MW new), Denmark (416 MW new) and Romania (384 MW new) belong to the five biggest European markets as well, while Spain, still number two in total capacity, has become one of the smaller European market with 122 MW of sold wind turbines.
Asia: Dominated by China and India
Again in 2013, China has been by far the largest single wind market, adding 5,5 GW in six months, slightly more than in the previous year, when 5,4 GW were erected. China accounted for 39% of the world market for new wind turbines, more than the 29% in the full year 2012. By June 2013, China had an overall installed capacity of 80,8 GW. India added 1,2 GW, less than in the first half of 2012, when it installed 1,5 GW. The prospects of the Indian market are still unclear due to policy uncertainties.
The Japanese and the Korean wind markets are still growing at very modest rates, with both countries showing growth rates of less than 2% in the first half of 2013. Due to this slow growth, Japan fell in the overall ranking from position 13 to 15. Mongolia added its first major wind farm of 50 MW.
The US market saw a dramatic slump in the first half of 2013, adding only 1,6 MW between January and June 2013, after 2’883 MW a year ago. The uncertainties from the unclear situation about the future of the Production Tax Credit have lead to this abnormal situation: In 2012, most investors tried to connect their wind farms to the grid in order to avoid the anticipated expiry of the production tax credit. Due to this pressure, many wind farms went online which otherwise would have been inaugurated in 2013, hence there are only few new projects left in 2013. It can be expected, however, that the market will again take up in the second half of 2013 and in particular in the year 2014.
Canada installed 377 MW during the first half of 2013, 50% more than in the previous period of 2012, in spite of major uncertainties in its largest province Ontario.
The biggest Latin American markets, Brazil, has become 14th largest wind market worldwide, after installing 281 MW in the first half of 2013 and reaching a total capacity of 2’788 MW, with a growth rate of 11,2%. Brazil is expected to continue as the lead market in the region in the next years to come.
Very encouraging developments happened in Australia whose wind market installed additional 475 MW, equaling an 18% growth in comparison with end of 2012, similar like in 2012. Australia also made a step ahead and is now 13th position internationally, from previous position 15. No new turbines were erected in New Zealand.
One new major wind farm of 100 MW has been installed in Morocco, increasing the country’s wind capacity to 391 MW. Thanks to Morocco, the additional African wind capacity grew by almost 10%, for the first time well above the global average.
Worldwide prospects for end of the year 2013:
In the second half of 2013, an additional capacity of 22 GW is expected to be erected worldwide, which would bring new annual installations to 35,7 GW, significantly less that the 44,6 GW of the year 2012. The total installed wind capacity is expected to reach 318 GW by the end of this year 2013, enough to provide almost 4% of the global electricity demand.
This expected decrease in new installations is mainly due to the abnormal US situation. Hence, it can be expected that the wind markets worldwide will be able to recover from the 2013 decrease and set a new record in the year 2014.