NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: THE ACTUAL COST OF NEW ENERGY

NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

The challenge now: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT THURSDAY, December 8:

  • TTTA Thursday- The Record Of The New EPA Head
  • TTTA Thursday-The Undeveloped New Energy
  • TTTA Thursday-Walking On New Energy
  • TTTA Thursday-Electric Tractor For Emissions-Free.Farming
  • THE DAY BEFORE

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Turning Distributed Energy From Threat To Opportunity
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Solar Policy Action Heats Up
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Maine’s Almost Solar Policy Breakthrough
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • TODAY’S STUDY: How To Balance Competing Solar Interests
  • QUICK NEWS, December 6: Sliver Of Hope? Al Gore In Climate Change Meet With Donald Trump; The Opportunity In New Energy; Google Seizing New Energy Opportunity
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • TODAY’S STUDY: A Way For New Energy To Meet Peak Demand
  • QUICK NEWS, December 5: Trial Of The Century Coming On Climate; The Wind-Solar Synergy; The Still Rising Sales Of Cars With Plugs
  • AND THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • Weekend Video: Trump Truth And Climate Change
  • Weekend Video: The Daily Show Talks Pipeline Politics
  • Weekend Video: Beyond Polar Bears – The Real Science Of Climate Change
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Aussie Farmers Worrying About Climate Change
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 1
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 2
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-New Energy And Historic Buildings In Europe
  • --------------------------

    --------------------------

    Anne B. Butterfield of Daily Camera and Huffington Post, f is an occasional contributor to NewEnergyNews

    -------------------

    Some of Anne's contributions:

  • Another Tipping Point: US Coal Supply Decline So Real Even West Virginia Concurs (REPORT), November 26, 2013
  • SOLAR FOR ME BUT NOT FOR THEE ~ Xcel's Push to Undermine Rooftop Solar, September 20, 2013
  • NEW BILLS AND NEW BIRDS in Colorado's recent session, May 20, 2013
  • Lies, damned lies and politicians (October 8, 2012)
  • Colorado's Elegant Solution to Fracking (April 23, 2012)
  • Shale Gas: From Geologic Bubble to Economic Bubble (March 15, 2012)
  • Taken for granted no more (February 5, 2012)
  • The Republican clown car circus (January 6, 2012)
  • Twenty-Somethings of Colorado With Skin in the Game (November 22, 2011)
  • Occupy, Xcel, and the Mother of All Cliffs (October 31, 2011)
  • Boulder Can Own Its Power With Distributed Generation (June 7, 2011)
  • The Plunging Cost of Renewables and Boulder's Energy Future (April 19, 2011)
  • Paddling Down the River Denial (January 12, 2011)
  • The Fox (News) That Jumped the Shark (December 16, 2010)
  • Click here for an archive of Butterfield columns

    -------------------

    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

    -------------------

    -------------------

      A tip of the NewEnergyNews cap to Phillip Garcia for crucial assistance in the design implementation of this site. Thanks, Phillip.

    -------------------

    Pay a visit to the HARRY BOYKOFF page at Basketball Reference, sponsored by NewEnergyNews and Oil In Their Blood.

  • ---------------
  • WEEKEND VIDEOS, December 10-11:

  • A Climate Change Denier’s Lies Exposed
  • The Good News Numbers On The EV Boom
  • “This Is Just The Beginning”

    Monday, February 24, 2014

    TODAY’S STUDY: THE ACTUAL COST OF NEW ENERGY

    Levelized Cost of Electricity Renewable Energy Technologies Study

    November 2013 (The Frauhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems)

    Summary

    The present study analyzes the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of renewable energy technologies in the third quarter of 2013. It predicts their future cost development through 2030 based on technology-specific learning curves and market scenarios.

    The main focus is on the LCOE for photovoltaics (PV), wind power and biomass power plants in Germany. As a reference value, the development of the LCOE for new conventional power plants was assessed (brown coal, hard coal, combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT)). Figure 1 shows the calculated LCOE of renewable energy technologies and fossil fuel power plants that were constructed in 2013.

    PV power plants reached LCOE between 0.078 and 0.142 Euro/kWh in the third quarter of 2013, depending on the type of power plant (ground-mounted utility-scale or small rooftop power plant) and insolation (1000 to 1200 kWh/m²a GHI in Germany). The specific power plant costs ranged from 1000 to 1800 Euro/kWp. The LCOE for all PV power plant types reached parity with other power generation technologies and are even below the average end-customer price for electricity in Germany of 0.289 Euro/kWh (BMWi 2013). Wind power at very good onshore wind locations already has lower costs than new hard coal or CCGT power plants.

    Currently the LCOE for onshore wind power (spec. invest between 1000 and 1800 Euro/kW) are between 0.045 and 0.107 Euro/kWh. Despite the higher annual average full load hours (up to 4000 hours), offshore wind power with just 0.119 to 0.194 Euro/kWh shows considerably higher LCOE than onshore wind power. The reasons for this are the expensive installation as well as higher operating and financing costs for offshore power plants (spec. invest between 3400 and 4500 Euro/kW).

    The LCOE from biogas power plants (spec. invest between 3000 and 5000 Euro/kW) is between 0.135 Euro/kWh (substrate costs 0.025 Euro/kWhth, 8000 full load hours) and 0.215 Euro/kWh (substrate costs 0.040 Euro/kWhth, 6000 full load hours). A heat usage is not considered in the calculations.

    In the case of conventional power plants, brown coal profits the most from the low prices of CO2 allowances. Depending on the assumed full load hours, the fuel costs and the price of CO2 allowances, the LCOE for brown coal is at 0.038 to 0.053 Euro/kWh, from hard coal at 0.063 to 0.080 Euro/kWh and from CCGT power plants at 0.075 to 0.098 Euro/kWh.

    The full load hours of conventional power plants are integrated into the LCOE with a decreasing tendency, corresponding to the forecasted increasing renewable energy share. Values in Figure 1 therefore only reflect the amount of full load hours for 2013; assumptions for the future are given in Table 4.

    Forecast of the LCOE in Germany through 2030

    Figure 2 shows the results for the future development of the LCOE in Germany through 2030. The range reflects the possible cost variations in the input parameters (e.g. power plant prices, insolation, wind conditions, fuel costs, number of full load hours, costs of CO2 emission allowances, etc., see tables 1 to 7). This methodology will be explained for the cost range of PV: The upper limit of the LCOE results from the combination of a PV power plant with a high procurement price at a location with low solar irradiation (e.g. Northern Germany). Conversely, the lower limit is defined by the most inexpensive solar system at locations with high solar irradiation in Southern Germany. This same process is carried out for wind and biomass power plants as well as conventional power plants. The usual financing costs on the market and the surcharges for risks are included d in detail and are specific to the technology. This provides a realistic comparison of the power plant locations, technology risks and cost developments. The level of financing costs has considerable influence on the LCOE and the competitiveness of a technology. Furthermore, all of the costs and discount rates in this study were calculated with real values (reference year 2013). The specific investments in the third quarter of 2013 were calculated based on market research and cost studies.

    Due to the consolidation of the PV market, no significant price reductions are expected on the market through 2014. After this a progress ratio (PR) of 85% (corresponding to a learning rate of 15%) is assumed which will lead to further cost reductions. By the end of the next decade, the lCOE of PV power plants will sink to the range of 0.055 to 0.094 Euro/kWh so that even small rooftop PV systems will be able to compete with onshore wind power and the increased LCOE from brown coal (0.06 to 0.08 Euro/kWh), hard goal (0.08 to 0.11 Euro/kWh) and CCGT power plants (0.09 to 0.12 Euro/kWh). The specific power plant investments will then be 570 to 1020 Euro/kWp. PV utility-scale power plants in Southern germany will drop considerably below the average lCOE for all fossil fuel power plants by 2030.

    Today the LCOE from onshore wind power is already at a very low level and will only decrease by a small amount in the future. Improvements are expected primarily by a higher number of full load hours and the development of new locations with specialized low wind turbines.

    Thanks to the expected increase in prices for fossil fuel power plants, the competitiveness of onshore wind power will however continue to improve and the LCOE at locations with favorable wind conditions will reach parity with that of brown coal power plants by 2020 at the latest. In 2030, the local conditions will be especially decisive if onshore wind power can produce less expensive electricity than PV power plants. Offshore wind power still has (compared with onshore wind power) great potential for reducing costs. Through 2030, the generation costs depending on location and wind conditions will drop to values between 0.096 and 0.151 Euro/kWh.

    Since only slight decreases in cost are expected for biogas power plants, no learning rates are recorded for biogas.

    This leads, in turn, to constant LCOEs by 2030 (0.135 and 0.215 Euro/kWh without earnings from heat cogeneration).

    Solar Technologies in Regions with High Irradiation

    In the second part of the study we examine solar technologies for regions with favorable sunlight conditions. Since these markets are often less developed and the political environment is unstable in comparison to Central Europe, for example the MENA region (Middle East, North Africa), a risk surcharge of around 2% is considered in the capital costs. Based on these assumptions, the LCOE of PV is, compared to Germany, not significantly lower as one might expect.

    The technologies concentrating solar power (CSP) and concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) are analyzed at locations with a high direct normal irradiation of 2000 kWh/(m²a), corresponding to Southern Spain, and 2500 kWh/(m²a), corresponding g to the MENA region. PV power plants are investigated at the respective locations with a global horizontal irradiation of 1800 kWh/(m²a) and 2000 kWh/(m²a) as well as an additional location with a low solar irradiation of 1450 kWh/(m²a), corresponding to Southern France.

    At the considered irradiation range of 1450 to 2000 kWh/(m²a), the LCOE from PV in 2013 lies under 0.120 Euro/kWh for all PV power plant types. At 2000 kWh/(m²a), PV utility-scale power plants are already able to produce power for 0.059 Euro/kWh and therefore have a LCOE that is comparable to power generated from oil, gas and coal.

    In countries without high subsidies in the electricity sector, the LCOE for PV therefore lies below the price for the end-customer. Here investments in PV can be profitable without national support programs. By 2030, the costs for PV electricity at locations with high solar irradiation will fall to 0.043 to 0.064 Euro/kWh.

    Parabolic trough power plants with thermal storage capacity of eight full load hours at locations with an annual direct normal irradiation (DNI) between 2000 and 2500 kWh/(m²a) today have a LCOE from 0.139 to 0.196 Euro/kWh. Due to the considerable cost reductions for PV in recent years, PV has a cost advantage over CSP. The advantage of the ability to store energy and the dispatchability of CSP, however, was not taken into account here. With positive world market developments, considerable derable cost reduction will be possible for CSP by 2030, enabling the LCOE to reach values around 0.097 to 0.135 Euro/kWh. This would then correspond to a specific investment for a solar thermal parabolic trough power plant with storage system of 2900 to 3700 Euro/kW.

    After the significant decrease in costs in recent years, concentrating photovoltaic power plants at locations with a DNI of 2000 or 2500 kWh/(m²a) can reach LCOE from 0.082 to 0.148 Euro/kWh in 2013. The young technology CPV could, if positive market development continues through 2030, reach a cost reduction ranging between 0.045 and 0.075 Euro/kWh. The power plant prices for CPV would then be between 700 and 1100 Euro/kWp.

    For CSP and CPV, there are still great uncertainties today concerning the future market development and thus also the possibility of achieving additional cost reductions through technoogical development. The analysis, however, shows that these technologies have potential for reducing the LCOE and encourages a continued development of these technologies.

    LCOE of Renewable Energy Technologies Study, Version November 2013

    This study is an update of the versions from May 2012 (Kost et al, 2012) and December 2010 (Kost and Schlegl, 2010) The methodology and content have been optimized and the current trends in cost development in the last three years have been taken into account.

    LCOE presents a basis of comparison for weighted average costs of different power generation technologies. This concept allows the accurate comparison of different technologies. It is not to be equated with the feed-in compensation. The actual spot value of electricity is determined by the daily and hourly variations and weather-related fluctuations in supply and demand and therefore cannot be represented by LCOE. An additional information about the methodology for LCOE can be found in the Appendix on page 36.

    1 Comments:

    At 5:52 AM, Anonymous Hazel Henderson said...

    I don't see that subsidies to fossil fuels and nuclear power or external costs of these sources are factored into the spot prices. If not, then the true prices of these renewables would be even more competitive !

     

    Post a Comment

    << Home

  • >