NewEnergyNews: UNDER ATTACK, EIA EXPLAINS ITS RENEWABLES PROJECTIONS

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    Thursday, May 01, 2014

    UNDER ATTACK, EIA EXPLAINS ITS RENEWABLES PROJECTIONS

    Renewable electricity generation projections sensitive to cost, price, policy assumptions

    April 29, 2014 (Energy Information Administration)

    "Electricity generation by renewables will grow 140% between 2012 and 2040 (excluding hydropower) to reach 16% of the U.S. energy mix, according to the U.S. Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2014, but some renewables advocates claim that is a gross underestimation…Key factors that can significantly change its projections from its reference case 16% by 2040, according to EIA, include assumptions about policy, demand growth, technology costs, and natural gas prices…but, if renewables policies are extended indefinitely or if a price is imposed on emissions, EIA projects that renewables would be over 16% of U.S. electricity by 2020…Solar advocates at the Sun Day Campaign cite research showing that renewables will be 16% of the U.S. generation mix by 2018, based on the assumptions that (1) wind will grow from this year’s 4.5% of the mix to 5.5% by just 2016 and keep growing and (2) solar’s share of the mix, which grew 138% in 2012 and 114% in 2013, will continue to double at least through 2016." click here for more

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