UNDER ATTACK, EIA EXPLAINS ITS RENEWABLES PROJECTIONS

Renewable electricity generation projections sensitive to cost, price, policy assumptions

April 29, 2014 (Energy Information Administration)

"Electricity generation by renewables will grow 140% between 2012 and 2040 (excluding hydropower) to reach 16% of the U.S. energy mix, according to the U.S. Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2014, but some renewables advocates claim that is a gross underestimation…Key factors that can significantly change its projections from its reference case 16% by 2040, according to EIA, include assumptions about policy, demand growth, technology costs, and natural gas prices…but, if renewables policies are extended indefinitely or if a price is imposed on emissions, EIA projects that renewables would be over 16% of U.S. electricity by 2020…Solar advocates at the Sun Day Campaign cite research showing that renewables will be 16% of the U.S. generation mix by 2018, based on the assumptions that (1) wind will grow from this year’s 4.5% of the mix to 5.5% by just 2016 and keep growing and (2) solar’s share of the mix, which grew 138% in 2012 and 114% in 2013, will continue to double at least through 2016." click here for more

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