NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: THE STATE OF WIND AND SOLAR FORECASTING

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Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

The challenge now: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Aussie Farmers Worrying About Climate Change
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 1
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 2
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-New Energy And Historic Buildings In Europe
  • THE DAY BEFORE

    THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT THURSDAY, December 1:

  • TTTA Thursday-First Daughter Ivanka May Fight For Climate
  • TTTA Thursday-Low Profile High Power Ocean Wind Energy
  • TTTA Thursday-A Visionary Solar Power Plant
  • TTTA Thursday-EVs Have A Growth Path
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: How The Clean Power Plan Drove The Utility Power Mix Transition
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: How Utilities Are Answering The Distributed Energy Resources Challenge
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Looking At New Rates To Unlock The Utility Of The Future
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • TODAY’S STUDY: The Power Potential Of Personal Wind
  • QUICK NEWS, November 29: Climate Change Forces Hard Choices In Alaska; New Energy To Utilities-“Can’t-Beat-Us-So-Join-Us”; Fact-Checking Trump Hot Air On Wind
  • AND THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • TODAY’S STUDY: Getting More New Energy On The Grid
  • QUICK NEWS, November 28, 2016: Pope Talks Climate Change At Trump; Solar Comes To The Mall; The Big Possibilities Of Backyard Wind
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • Weekend Video: Why President Trump Can’t Stop New Energy
  • Weekend Video: 7 Things Climate Change Will Mean
  • Weekend Video: Wireless EV Charging Stations
  • --------------------------

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    Anne B. Butterfield of Daily Camera and Huffington Post, f is an occasional contributor to NewEnergyNews

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    Some of Anne's contributions:

  • Another Tipping Point: US Coal Supply Decline So Real Even West Virginia Concurs (REPORT), November 26, 2013
  • SOLAR FOR ME BUT NOT FOR THEE ~ Xcel's Push to Undermine Rooftop Solar, September 20, 2013
  • NEW BILLS AND NEW BIRDS in Colorado's recent session, May 20, 2013
  • Lies, damned lies and politicians (October 8, 2012)
  • Colorado's Elegant Solution to Fracking (April 23, 2012)
  • Shale Gas: From Geologic Bubble to Economic Bubble (March 15, 2012)
  • Taken for granted no more (February 5, 2012)
  • The Republican clown car circus (January 6, 2012)
  • Twenty-Somethings of Colorado With Skin in the Game (November 22, 2011)
  • Occupy, Xcel, and the Mother of All Cliffs (October 31, 2011)
  • Boulder Can Own Its Power With Distributed Generation (June 7, 2011)
  • The Plunging Cost of Renewables and Boulder's Energy Future (April 19, 2011)
  • Paddling Down the River Denial (January 12, 2011)
  • The Fox (News) That Jumped the Shark (December 16, 2010)
  • Click here for an archive of Butterfield columns

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    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

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      A tip of the NewEnergyNews cap to Phillip Garcia for crucial assistance in the design implementation of this site. Thanks, Phillip.

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    Pay a visit to the HARRY BOYKOFF page at Basketball Reference, sponsored by NewEnergyNews and Oil In Their Blood.

  • ---------------
  • WEEKEND VIDEOS, December 3-4:

  • Trump Truth And Climate Change
  • The Daily Show Talks Pipeline Politics
  • Beyond Polar Bears – The Real Science Of Climate Change

    Monday, June 30, 2014

    TODAY’S STUDY: THE STATE OF WIND AND SOLAR FORECASTING

    A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West, July 2013 — March 2014

    R. Widiss & K. Porter and Dr. Debra Lew & Dr. David Hurlbut, March 2014 (Exeter Associates and NREL)

    Executive Summary

    This report is based on a series of interviews with 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting, jointly referred to as variable generation (VG) forecasting. This piece updates a report issued by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in 2012; it also covers several additional topics including sub-hourly scheduling, grid operator training, and forecasting for distributed solar resources. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities that rely on VG forecasting.

    VG forecasting is widely considered to be a key means of integrating wind and solar power efficiently and reliably as these resources become increasingly common. Indeed, in a recent report, grid operators from 18 countries identified wind forecasting as “the most important prerequisite for successfully integrating wind energy into power systems” (Jones 2011, p. xxiv).

    VG forecasting remains a relatively new phenomenon in the West. Ten of the 13 OEs interviewed for this year’s report began using VG forecasts in 2007 or later. Each currently uses a wind forecast. In anticipation of rapid growth in solar generation, five OEs have recently begun working on in-house solar forecasts and two are utilizing outside sources. This report serves as a means for these companies to compare VG forecasting practices, lessons learned, and priorities with one another, as well as to share their experiences with state and federal regulators, market participants, national laboratories, and non-governmental organizations.

    Highlights

    Costs and Benefits – The costs of wind forecasts have dropped dramatically since the 2012 report. This decline coincides with a shift toward testing or utilizing multiple vendors. Many of the OEs interviewed no longer view VG forecasting in a cost-benefit framework, regarding it instead as a necessity for maintaining electric reliability and scheduling resources effectively.

    Cost Assignment – Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively minor. However, the reportedly high cost of individual solar plant forecasts prompted at least one OE to turn to in-house forecasting.

    Forecast Accuracy – Wind forecasting accuracy continues to improve incrementally. Participating OEs credit these gains to improved forecasting techniques and models, seasoned vendors, and growing portfolio size, all of which smooth the variability in VG output. Solar forecasting is at an early stage in the West, but at least one company is beginning to track solar forecasting accuracy.

    Forecasting Uses – Nearly all interviewees use their wind forecasts for day-ahead unit commitment—a striking change since the 2012 report. This was consistent despite the entities’ diversity in size, proportion of renewables, and average monthly load. Intra-day unit commitment and reserves planning are the next most common uses, followed by a diverse array of uses often unique to a given entity.

    Data Collection – Participating OEs have made few expansions, if any, to the types of meteorological data (wind speed, direction, temperature, pressure, humidity) and turbine status data they require of wind generators. However, two OEs have recently taken steps to increase the speed of data transmission from their generators, and reported that this change has greatly enhanced the value of their wind forecasts. Because solar forecasting is at an early stage, only a small number of responding OEs have solar data requirements in place.

    Curtailments and Outages – Most interviewees factor turbine availability and/or outages into their forecasts so that they represent what generators are capable of producing, even if VG output is curtailed. Less than half of the OEs describe using curtailment information after the fact for calibrating forecast models and calculating performance metrics. Probabilistic Forecasting – Participants report that both ensemble forecasts and confidence intervals (CIs) are commonly used to address forecasting uncertainty. Yet many system operators reportedly ignore the CIs provided to them, choosing instead to use a single likeliest production value.

    Distributed Solar Production – Distributed generation (DG) is commonly “invisible” to system operators, particularly for behind-the-meter resources connected at customer sites, which are netted out with the customer load. These resources cannot usually receive dispatch commands. Six of the OEs interviewed view the development of methods to forecast distributed solar production as an imminent need, and two see it as an eventual need. No consensus on how to forecast distributed solar generation has emerged.

    Control Room Integration – Displays of VG forecasts in OE control rooms are nearly universal. Typically, these are automated feeds, sometimes provided by third-party forecasters. These displays are often accompanied by real-time weather or real-time generation data. Half the organizations interviewed are integrating forecast values directly into operations tools such as an Energy Management System (EMS).

    Staff Familiarity – Though formal training is rare, staff members often coach their colleagues on an as-needed basis. System operators have developed a sense of familiarity with VG forecasts at most of the organizations interviewed. Four OEs also employ meteorologists to aid in interpreting VG forecasts.

    Advice and Lessons Learned – Respondents’ advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics. Potential Regional Initiatives - Several of the OEs interviewed are against the creation of formal standards or guidelines for forecasting, suggesting that these would stifle innovation and impose “one-size-fits-all” methods upon unique situations. Others suggested that guidelines for data collection or a guideline determining resource adequacy for reserves would be helpful. A small number of interviewees advocated for further research and development (R&D) investments in forecasting.

    Forecast Sharing - OEs were also split on the idea of sharing forecasts with other OEs. Some suggest that sharing forecasts and data would help improve VG forecasting. Others contend that sharing forecasts will not have much value unless reserves can be traded through such mechanisms as Energy Imbalance Markets (EIMs). Still others view VG forecasts as a source of competitive advantage for recipients and would oppose sharing them.

    Sub-Hourly Dispatch - The changes documented since the 2012 report have been remarkable. Yet, it is also worth noting one practice that has not changed. Outside of the West, regional transmission organizations (RTOs) are now dispatching wind in five-minute markets as opposed to hourly schedules in the West, except for the Alberta Electric System Operator and the California Independent System Operator. The RTOs outside the West use equally fast forecast updates, taking advantage of the fact that forecasts are more accurate in short-term increments. Industry initiatives such as the EIM encompassing the California Independent System Operator, Nevada Power and PacifiCorp, as well as regulatory initiatives such as Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 764, may accelerate the adoption of this practice in the West.

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