NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: NEW CALMER WINDS AHEAD FOR EUROPE

NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

While the OFFICE of President remains in highest regard at NewEnergyNews, this administration's position on climate change makes it impossible to regard THIS president with respect. Below is the NewEnergyNews theme song until 2020.

The challenge now: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Is ‘Game Of Thrones’ About Climate Change?
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Surprises In The New Global Solar Rankings
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Denmark’s Vestas Wins Mexico’s Biggest Wind Deal
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Supervolcanoes Could Grow Cars With Plugs
  • THE DAY BEFORE

    THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT THURSDAY, August 17:

  • TTTA Thursday-Is The White House Hiding DOE’s Grid Study?
  • TTTA Thursday-Will The White House Hide The Climate Report?
  • TTTA Thursday-Crucial Transmission Line For Wind Denied
  • TTTA Thursday-Wind And Solar Are Saving Lives
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Organizing California’s Distributed Energy Efforts
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: A Deep Look At Evolving U.S. Efforts To Support Solar
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • TODAY’S STUDY: Big Growth In Customer-Sited Wind
  • QUICK NEWS, August 15: New Forest To Offset Bad U.S. Climate Policies Has 120,000 Pledges; Wind Becoming The Go-To Power; 88,000 Jobs And The Fight Over Solar Imports
  • AND THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • TODAY’S STUDY: The Work On Tomorrow’s Grid So Far
  • QUICK NEWS, August 14: Climate Is The Elephant In The Room; Long-Term, NatGas Is Not The Answer; Why Wind Is Such A Good Choice
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • Weekend Video: Al Gore Talks With Bill Maher
  • Weekend Video: The U.S. Celebrates Its First National Wind Week
  • Weekend Video: Wind Is Just Beginning To Show Its Power
  • --------------------------

    --------------------------

    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

    --------------------------

    --------------------------

    Research Associate and Contributing Editor Jessica R. Wunder

    --------------------------

    --------------------------

    --------------------------

    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

    -------------------

    -------------------

      A tip of the NewEnergyNews cap to Phillip Garcia for crucial assistance in the design implementation of this site. Thanks, Phillip.

    -------------------

    Pay a visit to the HARRY BOYKOFF page at Basketball Reference, sponsored by NewEnergyNews and Oil In Their Blood.

  • ---------------
  • WEEKEND VIDEOS, August 19-20:

  • Colbert On The Newest Climate Fiasco
  • Consumer Reports’ Tesla Vs. Bolt Face-Off
  • All About The Eclipse And The Power Grid

    Monday, August 25, 2014

    TODAY’S STUDY: NEW CALMER WINDS AHEAD FOR EUROPE

    Wind energy scenarios for 2020

    July 2014 (European Wind Energy Association)

    Background

    EWEA’s previous wind energy scenarios were pub lished in 2009 (‘Pure Power 2’) following the adoption of the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive. They were subsequently re-published in 2011 (‘Pure Power 3’).

    The scenarios looked at both annual and cumulative installations and included a country breakdown for 2020, but not for intermediate years. The headline figure was 230 GW (of which 40 GW offshore) producing 581 TWh of electricity, meeting 15.7% of electricity consumption. EU electricity consumption for 2020 was projected to be 3,689.5 TWh1.

    Reasons for the new scenarios

    In light of developments since 2009, not least the economic European markets, EWEA has reviewed its 2020 scenarios according to present and expected realities. The European Commission now2 expects final power demand in 2020 to be 11% lower than it did in 2009 (2,956 TWh gross final consumption in EU27, instead of 3,336 TWh). In reality, therefore, the Commission does not expect EU power demand to increase above its 2008 peak until after 2020. This economic reality has had a impact on demand for new power installations for all generation technologies.

    The economic reality has also fed through to the stability of regulatory and market frameworks for wind energy, both onshore and offshore. This has impacted investment plans, new orders, investment decisions already taken, and existing installations in markets across Europe. Retroactive and retrospective changes to regulatory and market frameworks have had a particularly negative impact on the wind energy sector, especially in certain markets.

    Proposed new scenarios

    Given the expectations for energy demand, the persisting instability in numerous markets across Europe, the rapidly changing national policy frameworks for wind energy, the new round of climate and energy discussions at EU level on a policy framework to 2030, and the potential impact of the 2015 COP climate negotiations in Paris, it is apparent that a single growth scenario for wind energy is no longer sufficient.

    Consequently, EWEA is proposing three growth scenarios to 2020. These are based on the premise that the instability experienced in wind energy markets to date is not fully compensated for by new installations in the latter half of the decade, particularly offshore. It does not necessarily follow that lower installations will undermine the EU’s 20% renewable energy target being met. As the 20% target is a consumption target, and with consumption in 2020 being lower than previously expected, meeting the target with fewer installed MW producing fewer TWh is feasible. EWEA’s new central scenario expects 192 GW of wind installations to produce 442 TWh meeting 14.9% of electricity consumption in 2020.4

    The central scenario will result in cumulative installations over the seven year period of 75 GW and an investment volume in wind farms of between €90 billion and €124 billion, with the leading markets being Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Poland and Italy. By 2020, 354,000 people (up from 253,000 today) will be employed in the European wind industry.

    • Low scenario 2020

    Installed capacity increases by 41% compared to 2013 to 165.6 GW. Offshore installations are 19.5 GW. Onshore wind installations produce 307 TWh of electricity and offshore installations 71.9 TWh. The combined wind energy production of 378.9 TWh covers 12.8% of total EU power demand.

    The effects of the economic crisis on power demand linger, pressure on public spending persists across Europe until the latter years of the decade. Instability in national regulatory frameworks in both mature and emerging markets continues. This instability makes it difficult to attract financing for new wind energy projects, especially in the offshore sector that struggles to de-risk. EU and international climate and energy policy post-2020 decisions are weak and unambitious, providing few extra stimuli for wind energy development.

    • Central scenario 2020

    Installed capacity increases by 64% compared to 2013 to 192.5 GW. Offshore installations reach almost 23.5 GW. Onshore wind installations produce 355.2 TWh of electricity and offshore installations 86.4 TWh. The combined wind energy production of 441.7 TWh covers 14.9% of total EU power demand. Regulatory stability is not fully recovered throughout Europe; however, in key onshore markets such as Germany, France, United Kingdom and Poland policy reforms are finalised rapidly and the new regulatory frameworks are conducive to a pick-up in wind power installations. EU post-2020 energy and climate negotiations provide some medium-term perspectives for the wind energy sector. Offshore installations are similar to those under the low scenario, but extra confidence in the UK and faster deployment in France and the Netherlands push the EU total to 23.5 GW.

    • High scenario 2020

    Installed capacity increases by 84.9% compared to 2013 to 217 GW. Offshore installations almost reach 28 GW. Onshore wind installations produce 397.8 TWh of electricity and offshore installations 102.2 TWh. The combined wind energy production of 500 TWh covers 17% of total EU power demand. Regulatory stability returns to most markets in Europe with annual installation growth rates returning to pre-2012 levels. Agreement on a strong EU climate and energy package, proposing domestic greenhouse gas reductions of 40% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels and a renewable energy target of 30% boosts installations in a number of key markets such as Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. As the effects of the economic crisis fade, markets that came to a virtual standstill in 2013, such as Spain, begin to show signs of growth. Offshore installations are similar to those of the central scenario, except in Belgium, Ireland and the UK where there is some extra growth. Germany’s offshore connection capacity of 7.7 GW is almost totally met.

    0 Comments:

    Post a Comment

    << Home