NewEnergyNews: LABOR DAY STUDY: CHINA NEW ENERGY MOVES AHEAD/

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YESTERDAY

THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT WEDNESDAY, August 23:

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  • The Global New Energy Boom Accelerates
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  • Texas Heat And Politics Of Denial
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    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

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    Monday, September 01, 2014

    LABOR DAY STUDY: CHINA NEW ENERGY MOVES AHEAD

    The China Greentech Report 2014; Greener, Smarter, More Productive

    August 2014 (China Greentech Initiative)

    Executive Summary

    The China Greentech Report 2014 is the culmination of an open-source, commercial collaboration of more than one hundred leading technology companies, service providers, investors, policy makers, NGOs and advisors who participated in The China Greentech Initiative’s 2013 Program. These organizations collaborated by ecosystem and committed their expertise, time and funding to address the developing opportunities and challenges in China’s evolving greentech markets.

    The China Greentech Report series—beginning with the 2009 edition released at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China and followed by the 2011, 2012 and 2013 editions—has established China Greentech as the authority on China’s greentech markets. This latest edition in the series builds upon the foundational perspectives from earlier Reports to offer new insights and recommendations, as well as takes an in-depth look at emerging market opportunities. The China Greentech Report 2014 focuses on the following:

    -New central and local government plans for pollution reduction

    -China’s path towards greener, smarter and more productive development

    -How forward-thinking companies are using innovative technologies, leveraging knowledge of best practices and employing global collaboration models to accelerate China’s sustainable growth

    Following these chapters, the Report summarizes Opportunity Assessments for four greentech ecosystems (Energy Value Chains; Built Environment, Sustainable Industry; and Cleaner Vehicles) that were developed in collaboration with China Greentech Partner companies and organizations that participated in the 2013 Program. The Opportunity Assessments focus on the following topics:

    -Capitalizing on China’s Potential Distributed Energy Boom

    -Achieving Energy Savings through Demand-Side Management

    -Green Building Solutions by Climate Zone

    -Capturing Energy Efficiency Opportunities in New and Retrofitted Buildings

    -Future Urban Transportation Systems to Help Solve China’s Traffic, Emissions and Energy Challenges

    -Developing Successful Regional Electric Vehicle Ecosystems

    -Addressing China’s Industrial Air Pollution Challenges

    -Applying Circular Economy Concepts in China’s Industrial Parks

    While our findings do not reflect China’s greentech development in its entirety, they do shed light on sectors that the China Greentech community has considered most relevant for promoting resource efficiency and pollution reduction in 2014 and beyond.

    Defining Greentech

    Greentech refers to technologies, products and services that deliver benefits to users of equal or greater value than those of conventional alternatives, while limiting the impact on the natural environment as well as maximizing the efficient and sustainable use of energy, water and other resources.

    Greener, Smarter, and More Productive

    As momentum builds around the importance of cleaner growth, China has the opportunity to leave behind former approaches to development that have resulted in soaring global emissions and resource scarcity, and instead carve out a new standard for development. Sustainable development, formerly considered an optional approach for local governments seeking to distinguish themselves as environmental stewards, is increasingly the prerequisite for meeting national pollution reduction requirements and attracting high-quality, long-term business partners and investment. As businesses and governments adopt a greener, smarter and more productive approach to urban and industrial development, China’s cities and industrial zones will reap the benefits.

    China’s Pollution Debate Enters a New Era

    Recent history is a disturbing reminder of China’s need to act immediately on pollution. Northern China’s air pollution in the winters of 2013 and 2014 triggered a chain of trend-setting events: a surge in hospital admissions related to respiratory illness, a storm of public opinion on social media platforms, and a hike in demand for transparent air quality data. The severity and duration of the 2013 and 2014 air crises have inspired several facets of change—controversial government initiatives, candid media attention, and a surge in private investment in greentech solutions.

    All eyes will be on China over the next few decades as the country redefines and refines its approach to development. This is exactly the moment that calls for the government and private sector to partner and lead the way in implementing a more sustainable growth model across sectors. If this opportunity is missed, resource constraints, choked cities and public health costs will become major bottlenecks for development and, in some cases, negate the progress that China has made as a developing nation emerging into a global leader. China has the opportunity to set an example for the rest of the world, to innovate and approach development differently than in the past.

    China’s 2013 Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control (Action Plan) is the nation’s most recent and visible campaign towards sustainable development. Released in September 2013, the Action Plan includes a targeted list of ten measures to reduce air pollution in major regions across China by 2017. High-level goals include capping the share of coal in China’s energy mix at 65% and reducing PM2.5 emissions by 25% in the Beijing, Hebei and Tianjin region, 20% in the Yangtze River Delta, and 15% in the Pearl River Delta, based on 2012 levels.1

    Heightened concern about pollution has also been accompanied by growth in greentech investments. China’s solar industry, in particular, is enjoying a fair share of this investment after a four-year downturn. In 2013, investments in newly installed utility and distributed solar capacity amounted to RMB 130 billion. Based on the market price of RMB 10 per watt, 2014 investments will likely meet the RMB 140 billion mark. In 2013 alone, an additional 12.9 GW (or twice the existing capacity at the end of 2012) of solar capacity was added to the grid, bringing total capacity to 19 GW by year-end, thus helping to absorb the industry’s manufacturing overcapacity.

    Development and installation of wind, natural gas, and nuclear offer a mixed progress report. Installed wind power capacity grew by about 25% in 2013, and grid connectivity for wind farms has improved. Only 11% of wind-generated power was not transferred to the grid in 2013, down from 17% in 2012 and 25% in 2011.2 With installed capacity for natural gas growing by about 14% in 2013, both wind and natural gas power generation capacity seem to be on track based on 12th Five-Year Plan targets. In contrast, nuclear power has remained relatively stagnant since March 2011.

    China’s plan to maintain a national GDP growth target of 7.5% through 2014 must be accompanied by an equally resolute vision for cleaner growth. To achieve this, China must invest in energy efficiency, reduce emissions from heavy industry, and boost renewable energy’s share in the national energy mix; furthermore, clear economic incentives must form the core of these initiatives. By adopting a greener, smarter and more productive approach to development, China has the opportunity to improve resource efficiency as well as the quality of life for its citizens.

    Building a Greener, Smarter, and More Productive China

    China must move beyond its current approach to address its energy and environmental challenges by integrating intelligent greentech solutions to improve efficiency across value chains. The adoption of cleaner technologies enhanced with information systems and optimized processes will not only reduce pollution but also save resources across sectors. China Greentech proposes that China adopt a greener, smarter and more productive approach to development and apply these concepts on all levels and scales, ranging from small-scale initiatives to large-scale industrial restructuring, to maximize the benefits of sustainable growth.

    If China is to achieve greener, smarter and more productive development, collaboration across sectors must improve. To that end, in early 2014 China Greentech formed a partnership of international and Chinese companies to identify and overcome the hurdles that often hinder collaboration—whether that be divisions across countries, sectors, companies or expertise areas—to pursue commercial opportunities together. The companies will combine their collective resources with China Greentech’s analysis, project intelligence, and network to integrate their products and services to customize solutions for China’s project owners and governments.

    The China Greentech Strategic Partnership was formed to define the models through which local and international firms can work together to collaborate around specific market opportunities, dismantle market misconceptions, address obstacles to greentech solution adoption, and build lasting relationships among governments and the private sector to drive cleaner development. The group believes in building insight around how China can best apply ‘greener, smarter and more productive’ concepts in projects pertaining to industrial efficiency, distributed energy, greener buildings and cleaner mobility.

    As momentum builds around the importance of cleaner growth, China has the opportunity to carve out a new standard for development, leaving the old one, which has resulted in soaring global emissions and resource scarcity, behind.

    The factors and players needed to drive this transformation are in place—public awareness is at its height, city officials feel pressure to build cleaner urban centers, and more readily available user-friendly tools are allowing wide-scale participation in resource conservation across industries and value chains like never before.

    Dependence on these factors alone, however, is not enough to ensure sustainable growth. Instead, businesses and governments must adopt an entirely new mindset— an integrated greener, smarter and more productive approach.

    Energy Value Chains

    Capitalizing on China’s Potential Distributed Energy Boom

    Opportunity Assessment Summary

    A means of diversifying China’s coal-dominated electricity mix and stimulating demand for an oversupply of solar PV modules, distributed energy has an outlook that is increasingly promising, with 8 GW of installed distributed capacity by 2013.3 Growing support for distributed energy systems by government, grid companies, developers and end-users promises to accelerate distributed energy adoption through 2015.

    Definition and Scope—Distributed Energy

    Distributed energy (DE) refers to energy generated onsite or near energy end-users—typically on a small-scale—that can be connected to the grid or off-grid (stand alone). DE power generation includes rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) and building integrated PV (BIPV); gas-fired combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP); small-scale hydropower; waste-to-energy; small wind turbines; small-scale biomass; and any hybrid of these solutions.

    Key insights from China Greentech’s distributed energy opportunity assessment include the following:

    New policies indicate a tipping point for distributed energy. The Chinese government is showing increasing support for distributed energy development by providing energy production subsidies and backing utility-provided procedures to streamline grid connectivity.

    Distributed solar shows signs of promise, while gas-fired CCHP develops at a slower pace. Distributed solar development has benefitted from subsidies and falling module prices, but the industry still relies on government support to remain competitive. Gas-fired CCHP is making progress under State Grid’s new policies but grid connection difficulties, complex project development processes, and an expected increase in gas prices will likely constrain its competitiveness.

    Industrial parks show potential for integrating distributed energy and information and communications technology solutions. Integrating hybrid DE solutions and information and communications technology (ICT) offers higher energy efficiency than standalone rooftop PV or gas-fired CCHP systems. Industrial parks are an ideal test bed for implementing these solutions.

    Achieving Energy Savings through Demand-Side Management

    Opportunity Assessment Summary

    Demand-side management (DSM) will play an increasingly important role in China's efforts to curb energy consumption and improve grid reliability. If implemented to its full potential, DSM would enable China to overachieve NDRC’s annual 0.3% power consumption reduction target—potentially by as much as a factor of 20.4 DSM’s potential to help China manage its energy and environmental needs through electricity savings, peak load reduction, reduced power consumption, and improved grid stability is vast.

    Definition and Scope—Demand-Side Management

    Demand-side management (DSM) describes grid-company and end-user efforts to reduce electricity peak load and overall power consumption. DSM encompasses a range of stakeholders, including government, utilities, end-users, energy service companies (ESCOs) and solution providers. To maximize benefits, DSM measures are customized to the electricity requirements and consumption patterns of the end-user, through various combinations of technologies and incentives.

    Key insights from China Greentech’s demand-side management opportunity assessment include the following:

    China’s power supply shortages are driving stronger government focus on DSM. Growing energy demand has outpaced energy production in the past decade, leading the government to prioritize end-user energy efficiency.

    Potential gains exceed China’s targets. National targets and a pilot city program launched in 2011 and 2012 demonstrate the government’s commitment to capture savings through DSM. However, while mandatory reductions could save nearly 50 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) between 2013 and 2015, recent DSM projects and related studies indicate a much higher savings potential of 1 trillion kWh by 2020— exceeding China’s targets by a factor of 20.

    Challenges must be addressed for DSM to live up to its potential. Low financial incentives, limited information on power consumption patterns, and cumbersome access to funding constrain further development of DSM projects. Large-scale success will require more effective strategies and incentives, innovative financing models and greater awareness of the many benefits of DSM. State Grid’s push to update grid technologies can also boost DSM development.

    Built Environment

    Green Building Solutions by Climate Zone

    Opportunity Assessment Summary

    There is a unique opportunity to capture energy savings across regions by adopting climate-specific solutions for buildings, which account for about 20% of China’s energy consumption. Designing buildings based on climate conditions and replicating proven solutions is essential to achieving energy savings.

    Definition and Scope—Green Building Solutions by Climate Zone

    Green building solutions by climate zone refers to energy-saving building solutions including the building envelope and HVAC, as well as related policies and incentives that are customized based on surrounding climate conditions. This opportunity assessment focuses on building solutions for the “Cold” and “Hot Summer, Cold Winter” climate zones as defined in the “1993 Standard of Climatic Regionalization for Architecture.”

    Key insights from China Greentech’s opportunity assessment on green building solutions by climate zone include the following:

    Climate matters. Buildings should be designed based on local climate conditions to maximize energy and other resource savings. The building sector accounts for about 20% of China’s energy consumption—and with its rapidly expanding building floor area, China has a huge opportunity to improve energy efficiency through the adoption and replication of solutions tailored to climate conditions.

    Regional solutions are essential. Design choices and operational practices based on regional climate differences are essential to maximizing energy savings in buildings. Reducing heat energy consumption is critical in northern China and improving air conditioning efficiency should be of highest priority in the south.

    Replicate solutions. Proven energy efficient solutions can be replicated to increase savings nationwide. Envelope insulation or external shading can be replicated across climate zones with minor adaptations.

    Policy and operational challenges hinder solution adoption. Policy, design and operational challenges continue to impede green building solution adoption. China must adopt policies to: 1) encourage incorporation of green building solutions from the early design stage, 2) streamline subsidy allocation and 3) build the capacity of building-operating personnel.

    Capturing Energy Efficiency Opportunities in New and Retrofitted Buildings

    Opportunity Assessment Summary

    Both new and retrofit green building projects offer opportunities for building developers, operators, owners and solution providers. Stakeholders that engage in these opportunities can be more competitive in China’s emerging green building market and earn reputations as innovative market leaders.

    Definition and Scope—Energy Efficiency in Buildings

    Energy efficiency in buildings refers to the opportunities for developers, owners and operators to use less energy in the construction, operation and maintenance of buildings. Energy efficiency opportunities can be applied to both new and retrofit buildings. We focus on opportunities for solution providers to drive overall market development through innovative technology, marketing and financing solutions.

    Key insights from China Greentech’s opportunity assessment on building energy efficiency include the following:

    Governments should work to improve access to subsidies and raise awareness on the benefits of building efficiency. Various subsidies for green buildings are in place, but access is often challenging due to low awareness of their availability.

    Building developers and operators should explore new and retrofit green building projects sooner, rather than later. Rather than waiting for market conditions to improve, companies can boost their brands and capture long-term energy savings by leading the market to adopt these solutions.

    Solution providers can offer integrated technologies and market directly to end customers, including consumers. Combining and promoting the solutions of multiple partners highlights the value to end customers. Energy savings solutions can even be promoted to consumers who are direct and indirect beneficiaries.

    Financiers can support smaller-scale projects. Smaller projects are often neglected by traditional commercial lenders even though they are easier to develop due to lower complexity and variables. They are often also in a better position to take advantage of alternative financing sources such as energy service companies (ESCO). Using financiers to develop business cases raises the confidence level of commercial lenders who, combined with ESCOs, can make smaller projects feasible.

    Sustainable Industry

    Addressing China’s Industrial Air Pollution Challenges

    Opportunity Assessment Summary

    Six industries account for more than 80% of total sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and soot emissions in China. Of those emissions, power and heat generation account for 47.5% and 66.7% of SOx and NOx, respectively. Reduced reliance on fossil fuels, adoption and operation of air pollution technologies and investment in energy efficiency, such as through demand-side management, will be critical to reduce air pollution from industrial processes.

    Definition and Scope—Industrial Air Pollution

    China Greentech defines industrial air pollution as the introduction of gases, chemicals, particulates or other materials into the atmosphere from industrial activity. Our scope focuses on the non-greenhouse gas air pollutants PM2.5, NOx and SOx.

    Key insights from China Greentech’s opportunity assessment on building energy efficiency include the following:

    Growing public awareness of the adverse health effects of PM2.5 is compelling the Chinese government to increase its pollution reduction efforts. With pollution data more readily available to the public, a growing number of Chinese citizens are becoming aware of the adverse health effects of PM2.5, and in turn have taken to social media to express their concerns.

    The sources of PM2.5 are diverse and complex. Secondary aerosols are the largest contributor to PM2.5; six industries account for 80% of total sulfur dioxide (SOx), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and soot emissions. While some PM2.5 particles are emitted directly, others are formed when pollutants such SOx and NOx react in the atmosphere. Combustion is the main source of PM2.5 emissions, whether for electricity, heating, transportation or other energy services.

    Opportunities in technology and professional services grow as the government invests in air pollution reduction. Investments in renewable distributed energy, energy efficiency, pollution control technologies and capacity building for professional staff will grow as China attempts to curb air pollution, especially particulate matter.

    Applying Circular Economy Concepts in China’s Industrial Parks

    Opportunity Assessment Summary

    China has set national targets for energy and water intensity, industrial water recycling and solid waste reuse. 50% of national industrial parks and 30% of provincial industrial parks are targeted to achieve circular economy transformation by 2015, as measured by rising output of recycled resources and declining waste discharge.5

    Definition and Scope—Circular Economy Concepts in Industrial Parks

    China Greentech defines a circular economy as one that reduces waste by reducing, reusing and recycling energy and resources. This can refer to individual enterprises recycling their own waste, nearby companies sharing and reusing waste products, or an entire economic system operating on the philosophy of circular design principles.6 This opportunity assessment focuses on circular economy concepts within industrial parks. The main waste streams considered include energy, solid waste and water.

    Key insights from China Greentech’s opportunity assessment on applying circular economy concepts in industrial parks include the following:

    Strengthen enabling environments for circular economy projects, especially wastewater sharing. Industrial parks are natural catalysts for a circular economy, but still face economic and policy barriers. In particular, low water prices fail to reward efficiency, requiring governments to instead offer predictable public investments and incentives for wastewater projects.

    Design new industrial parks with energy and waste recycling in mind. Resource reuse is economically attractive but introduces new challenges. Planners, industry and solution providers should collaborate on tailored recycling systems for each new park, such as water pipe infrastructure for recycling and reuse.

    Use Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives to catalyze change. Large multinationals can use their CSR budgets for China to fund demonstration projects with unattractive economics—then work toward policy reforms and a sustainable business model to improve the project’s economics over time.

    Cleaner Vehicles

    Future Urban Transportation Systems to Help Solve China’s Traffic, Emissions and Energy Challenges

    Opportunity Assessment Summary

    China’s economic growth and rapid urbanization over the past two decades have intensified urban mobility demands. Vehicle ownership ballooned from only 5.3 million in 1990 to 136 million by 2013.7 This exponential growth has led to severe traffic congestion, higher energy demands, and worsening air pollution from vehicle emissions.

    Definition and Scope—Cleaner Urban Transportation

    Urban transportation systems encompass several elements including: public transport, non-motorized transport (such as pedestrians and cyclists), private motorized traffic, and commercial traffic. The major objective of cleaner urban transport is to meet the demands for both accessible and efficient transportation services while promoting sustainable transportation networks suited for high-density urban populations, as well as minimizing congestion and vehicle emissions like carbon dioxide, nitrous oxides and particulates.

    Key insights from China Greentech’s opportunity assessment on urban transportation include the following:

    Near and long-term planning. There are measures that can be adopted both immediately and in the long-term to minimize the environmental impact of urbanization and growing demand for vehicles. Short-term economic measures include congestion pricing and price reductions for public transportation. Long-term measures include the development of accessible public transit options, bicycle-friendly communities and mixed-use zones that minimize travel time between home, work and shopping areas.

    Next-generation transportation options. Long-term planning should also consider the development of next-generation transportation systems. While there may be higher upfront costs associated with such systems, they have the potential to accelerate cleaner urban transportation development’

    Developing Successful Regional Electric Vehicle Ecosystems

    Opportunity Assessment Summary

    China’s 2015 targets for EVs and charging infrastructure are aggressive and challenging. They demand an accelerated approach with strong cooperation between government and the private sector. Regional EV ecosystems, designed around current technology and concentrated market opportunities, could accelerate EV adoption.

    Definition and Scope—Regional Electric Vehicle Ecosystems

    Regional electric vehicle (EV) ecosystems use available technologies and viable business models to introduce EVs within a contained physical environment. Vehicles and charging infrastructure are clustered at densely populated locations to serve customers with common and predictable driving needs. Commercially viable business models and value propositions for all stakeholders are essential requirements for regional EV ecosystems.

    Key insights from China Greentech’s opportunity assessment on regional EV ecosystems include the following:

    A regional EV ecosystem approach can help China meet ambitious EV targets. National targets announced in 2012 aim for an 18-fold increase of EV sales in just three years. The government is already subsidizing vehicle purchases to encourage this growth, but many experts suggest regional EV ecosystems will be essential for success.

    Concentrating EV infrastructure and services in suitable locations with sufficient demand is already commercially viable with existing EV technologies. Despite underdeveloped infrastructure and technological limitations, there are niche markets in which EV vehicles can operate cost-effectively if the right incentives are in place.

    The most promising locations for regional EV projects in Beijing are business campuses dominated by high-tech companies and white-collar workers. Zhonguangcun Haidian Science Park and the Guomao office complex, for example, have the population, socioeconomics and market drivers to support their own EV ecosystems.

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