NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: BIG SOLAR GETS COMPETITIVE

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YESTERDAY

THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT THURSDAY, December 8:

  • TTTA Thursday- The Record Of The New EPA Head
  • TTTA Thursday-The Undeveloped New Energy
  • TTTA Thursday-Walking On New Energy
  • TTTA Thursday-Electric Tractor For Emissions-Free.Farming
  • THE DAY BEFORE

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Turning Distributed Energy From Threat To Opportunity
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Solar Policy Action Heats Up
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Maine’s Almost Solar Policy Breakthrough
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • TODAY’S STUDY: How To Balance Competing Solar Interests
  • QUICK NEWS, December 6: Sliver Of Hope? Al Gore In Climate Change Meet With Donald Trump; The Opportunity In New Energy; Google Seizing New Energy Opportunity
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • TODAY’S STUDY: A Way For New Energy To Meet Peak Demand
  • QUICK NEWS, December 5: Trial Of The Century Coming On Climate; The Wind-Solar Synergy; The Still Rising Sales Of Cars With Plugs
  • AND THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • Weekend Video: Trump Truth And Climate Change
  • Weekend Video: The Daily Show Talks Pipeline Politics
  • Weekend Video: Beyond Polar Bears – The Real Science Of Climate Change
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Aussie Farmers Worrying About Climate Change
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 1
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 2
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-New Energy And Historic Buildings In Europe
  • --------------------------

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    Anne B. Butterfield of Daily Camera and Huffington Post, f is an occasional contributor to NewEnergyNews

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    Some of Anne's contributions:

  • Another Tipping Point: US Coal Supply Decline So Real Even West Virginia Concurs (REPORT), November 26, 2013
  • SOLAR FOR ME BUT NOT FOR THEE ~ Xcel's Push to Undermine Rooftop Solar, September 20, 2013
  • NEW BILLS AND NEW BIRDS in Colorado's recent session, May 20, 2013
  • Lies, damned lies and politicians (October 8, 2012)
  • Colorado's Elegant Solution to Fracking (April 23, 2012)
  • Shale Gas: From Geologic Bubble to Economic Bubble (March 15, 2012)
  • Taken for granted no more (February 5, 2012)
  • The Republican clown car circus (January 6, 2012)
  • Twenty-Somethings of Colorado With Skin in the Game (November 22, 2011)
  • Occupy, Xcel, and the Mother of All Cliffs (October 31, 2011)
  • Boulder Can Own Its Power With Distributed Generation (June 7, 2011)
  • The Plunging Cost of Renewables and Boulder's Energy Future (April 19, 2011)
  • Paddling Down the River Denial (January 12, 2011)
  • The Fox (News) That Jumped the Shark (December 16, 2010)
  • Click here for an archive of Butterfield columns

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    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

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  • WEEKEND VIDEOS, December 10-11:

  • A Climate Change Denier’s Lies Exposed
  • The Good News Numbers On The EV Boom
  • “This Is Just The Beginning”

    Tuesday, November 11, 2014

    TODAY’S STUDY: BIG SOLAR GETS COMPETITIVE

    PV Grid Parity Monitor; Utility-scale 1st issue

    David Pérez, Carolina Fondo, Laura Gutiérrez, July 2014 (Eclareon)

    Executive Summary

    This is the fourth issue of the Grid Parity Monitor and the first one to be exclusively focused on the utility-scale segment (50 MWp PV plants with a single-axis tracking system). This report analyzes PV competitiveness in wholesale energy markets and provides an outline of the electricity regulation in six different countries (Chile, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, Turkey and USA (Texas)).

    The previous GPM reports were centered on residential and commercial customers operating under a net metering scheme. It is worth mentioning that the approach of this GPM issue differs considerably from past GPM’s methodologies: while for residential and commercial clients the LCOE is calculated to analyse so-called grid parity proximity, the utility-scale issue focuses the analysis on generation parity. In so doing, the report determines a theoretical tariff which fulfils profitability requirements for investors. This required tariff is compared to local wholesale prices in order to determine if generation parity exists in the country.

    The required tariff is calculated based on the economics of the PV plant under a project finance scheme, since this is currently the most common form of financing. Other financing possibilities that could significantly improve generation parity results have not been analysed in this report1.

    The results of the GPM analysis (summarized in the Figure below) show that only Chile is in a full generation parity situation, although Morocco, Italy and Mexico are or have been close recently.

    The following conclusions on the utility-scale segment (50 MWp plants) can be drawn from the Figure above:

    • In Chile, high electricity prices and irradiation levels provide a generous generation parity, which presents a wide enough margin to protect against potential falls in market prices.

    • Generation parity in Italy has worsened in the last semester, mainly due to a sharp decrease in wholesale prices. However, the volatility of the Italian market advises to monitor this country recurrently.

    • Mexico is undergoing a major regulatory reform that is liberalizing generation activities and will presumably impact wholesale prices. As the Mexican required tariff presents reasonably attractive values, this market will be revised in further GPM issues.

    • Moroccan required tariffs are very close to achieve full generation parity. The increase in electricity prices foreseen for the next 4 years will boost the attractiveness of this country for utility-scale PV generation.

    • High capital costs (both for equity and debt) and high CPI rates hinder generation parity in Turkey. Nevertheless, electricity is relativeley expensive and shows an ascending trend.

    • Although Texas shows the lowest required tariff of this GPM analysis, wholesale market rates are not attractive enough to allow for generation parity.

    The fact that generation parity has not been reached in a country does not imply that utility-scale PV plants will not be built. Other reasons may trigger such an investment, for example:

    • A RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) system is in place

    • A FiT exists

    • A convenient PPA scheme has been granted to the investor

    Given the great interest within the solar industry for this particular PV segment and the proliferation of specific solar auctions in different countries worldwide, the next issue of the GPM for utility-scale plants (to be released in 2015) will monitor the current trends in utility-scale generation globally. New countries (Central America and MENA) and different financing schemes (corporate bonds) for PV installations will be included in the 2015 issue.

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