NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: WITH EMISSIONS RISING, THE SITUATION IS STARK

NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

The challenge now: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT THURSDAY, December 1:

  • TTTA Thursday-First Daughter Ivanka May Fight For Climate
  • TTTA Thursday-Low Profile High Power Ocean Wind Energy
  • TTTA Thursday-A Visionary Solar Power Plant
  • TTTA Thursday-EVs Have A Growth Path
  • THE DAY BEFORE

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: How The Clean Power Plan Drove The Utility Power Mix Transition
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: How Utilities Are Answering The Distributed Energy Resources Challenge
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: Looking At New Rates To Unlock The Utility Of The Future
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • TODAY’S STUDY: The Power Potential Of Personal Wind
  • QUICK NEWS, November 29: Climate Change Forces Hard Choices In Alaska; New Energy To Utilities-“Can’t-Beat-Us-So-Join-Us”; Fact-Checking Trump Hot Air On Wind
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • TODAY’S STUDY: Getting More New Energy On The Grid
  • QUICK NEWS, November 28, 2016: Pope Talks Climate Change At Trump; Solar Comes To The Mall; The Big Possibilities Of Backyard Wind
  • AND THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • Weekend Video: Why President Trump Can’t Stop New Energy
  • Weekend Video: 7 Things Climate Change Will Mean
  • Weekend Video: Wireless EV Charging Stations
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-A Picture Of Climate Change
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Japan’s Toyota Targets Longer Range EV
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Spain’s Bay of Biscay Wave Harvest
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Morocco’s Green Revolution
  • --------------------------

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    Anne B. Butterfield of Daily Camera and Huffington Post, f is an occasional contributor to NewEnergyNews

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    Some of Anne's contributions:

  • Another Tipping Point: US Coal Supply Decline So Real Even West Virginia Concurs (REPORT), November 26, 2013
  • SOLAR FOR ME BUT NOT FOR THEE ~ Xcel's Push to Undermine Rooftop Solar, September 20, 2013
  • NEW BILLS AND NEW BIRDS in Colorado's recent session, May 20, 2013
  • Lies, damned lies and politicians (October 8, 2012)
  • Colorado's Elegant Solution to Fracking (April 23, 2012)
  • Shale Gas: From Geologic Bubble to Economic Bubble (March 15, 2012)
  • Taken for granted no more (February 5, 2012)
  • The Republican clown car circus (January 6, 2012)
  • Twenty-Somethings of Colorado With Skin in the Game (November 22, 2011)
  • Occupy, Xcel, and the Mother of All Cliffs (October 31, 2011)
  • Boulder Can Own Its Power With Distributed Generation (June 7, 2011)
  • The Plunging Cost of Renewables and Boulder's Energy Future (April 19, 2011)
  • Paddling Down the River Denial (January 12, 2011)
  • The Fox (News) That Jumped the Shark (December 16, 2010)
  • Click here for an archive of Butterfield columns

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    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

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      A tip of the NewEnergyNews cap to Phillip Garcia for crucial assistance in the design implementation of this site. Thanks, Phillip.

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    Pay a visit to the HARRY BOYKOFF page at Basketball Reference, sponsored by NewEnergyNews and Oil In Their Blood.

  • ---------------
  • FRIDAY WORLD, December 2:

  • Aussie Farmers Worrying About Climate Change
  • The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 1
  • The Climate Change Solution At Hand, Part 2
  • New Energy And Historic Buildings In Europe

    Wednesday, November 12, 2014

    TODAY’S STUDY: WITH EMISSIONS RISING, THE SITUATION IS STARK

    2014 Energy and Climate Outlook

    November 2014 (The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

    [editor’s note: Important content, awful graphics. Sorry.]

    Key Findings

    Changes in Energy and Emissions

    With emissions stable and falling in developed countries, on the assumption that Copenhagen-Cancun pledges are met and retained in the post‑2020 period, future emissions growth will come from the Other G20 and developing countries.

    • Growth in global emissions results in 77 Gt (gigatons) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2‑eq)1 emissions in 2050, rising to 92 Gt by 2100—nearly double the emissions in 2010. By 2050 the developed countries account for about 15% of global emissions, down from 30% in 2010.

    • CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain the largest source of GHGs, but other greenhouse gas emissions and non‑fossil energy sources of CO2 account for almost 33% of total global GHG emissions by 2100 (slightly down from 35% in 2010, and 43% in 2050).

    • In 2050, electricity and transportation emissions will together account for nearly 52% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, decreasing slightly from 56% in 2010.

    • Fossil fuel energy continues to account for over 80% of primary energy through 2050 (despite rapid growth in renewables and nuclear), in part because the natural gas share of primary energy also increases. Changes in Climate Global change will accelerate with changes in global and regional temperatures, precipitation, land use, sea level rise and ocean acidification.

    • Global mean sur face temperature increase ranges from 1.6 to 2.6°C (central estimate 1.9°C) by mid‑century relative to the 1901–1950 mean, and 3.3 to 5.6°C (central estimate 3.9°C) by 2100.

    • Global mean precipitation increase ranges from 4.1 to 5.3% by 2050 relative to the 1901–1950 mean, and 7.5 to 12.4% (central estimate 8.5%) by 2100.

    • Thermal expansion and land glacier melting contribute 0.08 to 0.12 meters to sea level rise from present (2014) by 2050, and 0.25 to 0.44 meters (central estimate 0.30 meters) by 2100.

    • More carbon in the ocean leads to increasing acidity—average pH drops from 8.03 in 2010 to about 7.85 pH by 2100. Changes in Water Flows Annual freshwater flow increases globally by about 15% by 2100.

    • By the end of the century, total water withdrawals are projected to increase by about 19%. We estimate current withdrawals of 2,700 billion cubic meters (bcm) rising to 3,200 bcm in 2100. At this level, withdrawals would account for about 6% of the annual freshwater flow.

    • Our projections assume no changes in irrigated lands and, as a result, withdrawal for irrigation falls slightly (from the current 1,551 bcm to 1,389 bcm in 2100). Withdrawals for domestic use of water doubles (from 348 to 698 bcm) and industrial use of water increases by almost 45% (from 763 to 1,098 bcm).

    • We distinguish between consumption of water (the amount lost to evaporation or consumed and not returned to the basin) and withdrawals, which include consumption plus return flow. In terms of consumption, annual irrigation is projected to use nearly 1,000 bcm in 2100, while industrial and domestic uses are each about 1/5 of that amount— just over 200 bcm. Globally, this level of consumption is 2.5% of total annual freshwater flow in 2100.

    • Withdrawals and consumption as a percentage of total annual flows can provide a misleading picture of the adequacy of water resources, because location and timing of flows is important. Similarly, the seasonality of precipitation often means the timing of flows does not match needs.

    • By 2100, our scenarios show reductions in potential water stress in some parts of North America, China and the Middle East. Despite abundant global supply, they also show increased water stress in parts of India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, North Africa, South Africa and the U.S.

    • Based on more extensive simulations, water requirements increasing with population and GDP can have a stronger effect than climatic changes on water stress, especially in developing countries, where economic and population growth can be strong drivers of water requirements. Where growth occurs, inter-basin transfers, added water storage, and conservation and efficiency measures can be a response to increased stress.

    • Projections of regional precipitation patterns, and the processes that control runoff and water requirements, are highly uncertain and have strong interannual and decadal variability. More rigorous uncertainty analysis is needed to fully understand likelihoods of specific water resource outcomes. Expectations for the 2015 UN Climate Agreement

    • Likely efforts will further bend the curve of emissions growth, with an estimate of 68 Gt CO2‑eq emissions in 2050—about 9 Gt less than our Outlook estimate for 2050.

    • Unless the post‑2020 agreement is significantly more stringent than we speculate, the emissions path will diverge further from what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III shows to be consistent with stabilization of GHG concentrations to 530–580 CO2‑eq by 2100.

    • On this emissions path, by 2030 the world will be within about 7 years of hitting cumulative emissions levels that the IPCC Working Group I shows to be consistent with a 50% chance of holding temperature increase to less than 2°C. Progress on climate change mitigation through international agreement has been slow, and efforts appear to be falling well behind the ambitious long‑term goals set by the international community.

    Whether those goals are achieved or not, any hope of averting considerable climate consequences by stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations will require significant emissions reduction. Another 20 or 30 years of increasing emissions suggest substantial risks of dangerous climate change.

    This Outlook provides an overview of the details by which we have reached these broad conclusions. A principal product of our process is a set of detailed tables containing economic, energy, land use, and emissions results for each of 16 global regions.2

    We provide detailed regional projections up to 2050 and show global results through 2100 (useful for providing long‑term climate implications of our near‑term emissions policy choices). The nature of the climate change issue—(1) the long‑term accumulation of gases with long lifetimes; (2) a climate system with inertia so that it takes some decades to millennia, in the case of sea level, to see the full effect of current concentrations; and (3) the added inertia in the energy system due to long‑lived capital investments and the institutions that can be slow to change— all mean that much of our climate future for the next few decades has already been determined; we are just waiting to see how uncertainties about the climate response resolve themselves…

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