CLIMATE SCIENCE RIGHT AGAIN
No, climate models aren’t exaggerating global warming
Puneet Kolipara, February 4, 2015 (Washington Post)
“Weather and climate agencies around the world have been almost unanimous in declaring 2014 the hottest year on record — something that has promoted considerable chagrin among climate change doubters…[because they] have long sought to cast doubt on man-made global warming…[M]any models didn’t predict the relatively modest surface-warming ‘hiatus’…[because computer simulations] struggle to predict ‘chaotic’ (or random) short-term changes in the climate system…And scientists are slowly beginning to figure out why [according to Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends]…[B]ut for all 15-year periods stretching back to 1900…[the] actual temperature trend always fell somewhere in the models’ prediction range…Essentially, that means climate skeptics are cherry-picking when they point out that climate models didn’t predict the recent 15-year hiatus…[C]limate models may not provide the perfect picture of what will happen to temperatures in a given short-term period (on 10- or 20-year scales)…due to the random ways in which climate can temporarily fluctuate…They still give us a good sense of the long-term picture…[T]emperatures are increasing, and…natural factors can’t explain this…” click here for more
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home