ORIGINAL REPORTING: Powered by PTC, wind energy expected to keep booming

Powered by PTC, wind energy expected to keep booming despite Clean Power Plan stay; Demand for cheap wind may be so great that utilities build out enough to meet CPP targets regardless of the stay.

Herman K. Trabish, February 17, 2016 (Utility Dive)

Wind energy will play an increasingly vital role in the nation's power mix as a result of the extension of key renewable power tax credits, and its growth is unlikely to be significantly slowed by the judicial stay placed on the EPA's Clean Power Plan, analysts told Utility Dive. Wind industry numbers are up impressively in 2016, according to the year’s Market Reports from the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). The fourth quarter’s 5,001 MWs represented wind’s second biggest quarterly performance. The industry now has a cumulative installed capacity of nearly 74.5 GW, and has reduced wind’s installed cost 66% since 2008. U.S. wind builders also closed the year with a strong pipeline. There were over 9,400 MW in construction across 72 projects, including over 1,800-plus MW of construction started in Q4. There were also 4,900 MW in advanced stages of development, including 1,500-plus MW of advanced development added in the last quarter.

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In December, Congress approved multi-year extensions and phase-downs of both the $0.023/kWh PTC, which had expired at the end of 2014, and solar’s 30% investment tax credit (ITC). The double punch of the extensions and the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) puts the industry in position to grow well into the 2020s, with annual capacity additions topping out at an unprecedented 30 GWs in 2021, according to a Rhodium Group analysis. The Supreme Court's decision to stay the implementation of the Clean Power Plan will increase uncertainty but the expansion in wind energy is likely to be significant. The Rhodium analysis estimates 116 GW cumulative utility scale wind and solar capacity addition due to the tax extenders and the CPP. If the Supreme Court decision only delays CPP implementation, it will shift the horizon back a year or two, but won't significantly change the capacity outlook… click here for more

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