NewEnergyNews: What The Misguided Solar Tariff Will Really Do

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    Thursday, February 01, 2018

    What The Misguided Solar Tariff Will Really Do

    U.S. Solar Outlook: Initial Reactions to Section 201 Decision

    Cory Honeyman, Austin Perea, Colin Smith, February 1, 2018 (GTM Research)

    “…[The White House-imposed 30 percent year-one tariff on imported] solar cells and modules] are expected to result in an 11 percent reduction to U.S. solar demand between 2018 and 2022, equivalent to 7.6 gigawatts…[Between 2018-2022, demand loss in Utility-scale PV will be 11.6% , or 4.9 GW. In non-residential PV, it will be 10.7%, or 1.1 GW, and in residential PV, it will be 9.9%, or 1.5 GW. The tariffs and quotas are also expected to result in nearly a quarter million homes, businesses and other retail customers no longer installing solar between now and 2022. U.S. solar will resume growth and recovers beyond 2017 levels in 2019, despite a 16% loss in demand…[Major residential state markets, including California and the Northeast, will see the largest declines…

    Large C&I customers with challenging rate structures and community solar with higher transaction and soft costs result in nonresidential solar being more sensitive than residential solar. However, the near term outlook is partly protected by less sensitive projects grandfathered in under retiring policies and incentives across the top 4 [states, CA, MA, MN, and NY, this year. As the utility-scale solar pipeline of less sensitive RPS driven projects and projects already in construction depletes, effects of the tariff will be most severe in 2019. Reductions to demand will be lower in 2020 and 2021 as projects currently in development push out completion dates to leverage the tariff stepdown and commence construction rules for higher federal investment tax credit levels.” click here for more

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