NewEnergyNews: Booming U.S. Wind Faces Tax Credit Horizon

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    Thursday, September 12, 2019

    Booming U.S. Wind Faces Tax Credit Horizon

    US Wind to Peak in 2020 with 14.6 GW as Production Tax Credit Expires

    September 12, 2019 (Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables)

    “The U.S. wind market will add 14.6 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest North America wind power outlook. The record-setting mark underlines the strength of the 23GW pipeline Wood Mackenzie has identified as currently under construction or contracted for commercial operation in 2020…The phase out of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) beginning in 2021 has developers rushing to complete projects in 2020, driving major bottlenecks in both logistics and interconnection queues… As a result, project delays are mounting, negatively impacting the amount and timing of wind capacity installations…[D]eals with virtually every offtaker type have increased dramatically in the last six to 12 months…

    Wood Mackenzie’s forecast assumes 6.6 GW of projects scheduled for 2020 will not reach completion by the end of this year but will connect to the grid in 2021…[R]oughly 1.5 GW of additional capacity will be cancelled outright – typically ahead of project construction – with any attached offtakers likely choosing solar PV resources for subsequent PPAs to replace the lost generation…Solar PV, which benefits from the 30% solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC), is beginning to compete more effectively with onshore wind on cost…[W]ind will remain competitive in key states through 2021, [but] the negative cost impact associated with the PTC declining to 60% and then 40% of its original value will outpace cost of electricity reductions in 2022 and 2023…Wood Mackenzie forecasts the U.S. to add 12.3 GW of wind power in 2021, before bottoming out at 5.9 GW in 2024.” click here for more

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