New, More Precise Climate Data Details The Crisis

How Much Will Earth Really Warm By? Here's What The Latest Research Says

Ben McNeil, 23 August 2020 (MetaFact via Science Alert)

“…[An important element of climate science uncertainty] is how sensitive Earth's climate is to carbon dioxide…[That ‘equilibrium climate sensitivity’] represents the temperature rise for a sustained doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations…[It] has long been estimated within a likely range of 1.5-4.5 °C. That means if/when carbon dioxide in our atmosphere reaches 560 parts per million (ppm), Earth will warm somewhere between 1.5-4.5 °C…[New research] finds the most likely range to be 2.6–3.9 °C…[Atmospheric carbon dioxide] was ~280 ppm before industrialisation (AD 1880) and is ~413 ppm today…[Without much political action by the world,] the concentration would double to be 560 ppm by ~2070…

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[T]he new study implies that today we are already likely locked into somewhere between 1.3-2.0 °C warming in the long-term…[But] we can nearly rule out 5 °C by 2100 assuming the world does not go bonkers, but not 2200 if we keep burning fossil fuels…The most optimistic future pollution scenario [-- thought not playing out in reality -- ] involves the world drastically cutting coal, oil and gas use up until 2050…[That] would give us an 83 percent chance of staying below 2 °C…[But] staying below 1.5 °C would be extraordinarily difficult…The more likely scenario based on the new study and the most likely future pollution scenario is 2-3 °C by 2100…” click here for more

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