NewEnergyNews: New, More Precise Climate Data Details The Crisis

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  • MONDAY STUDY: A Look Ahead At New Energy In Buildings

    Friday, August 28, 2020

    New, More Precise Climate Data Details The Crisis

    How Much Will Earth Really Warm By? Here's What The Latest Research Says

    Ben McNeil, 23 August 2020 (MetaFact via Science Alert)

    “…[An important element of climate science uncertainty] is how sensitive Earth's climate is to carbon dioxide…[That ‘equilibrium climate sensitivity’] represents the temperature rise for a sustained doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations…[It] has long been estimated within a likely range of 1.5-4.5 °C. That means if/when carbon dioxide in our atmosphere reaches 560 parts per million (ppm), Earth will warm somewhere between 1.5-4.5 °C…[New research] finds the most likely range to be 2.6–3.9 °C…[Atmospheric carbon dioxide] was ~280 ppm before industrialisation (AD 1880) and is ~413 ppm today…[Without much political action by the world,] the concentration would double to be 560 ppm by ~2070…

    [T]he new study implies that today we are already likely locked into somewhere between 1.3-2.0 °C warming in the long-term…[But] we can nearly rule out 5 °C by 2100 assuming the world does not go bonkers, but not 2200 if we keep burning fossil fuels…The most optimistic future pollution scenario [-- thought not playing out in reality -- ] involves the world drastically cutting coal, oil and gas use up until 2050…[That] would give us an 83 percent chance of staying below 2 °C…[But] staying below 1.5 °C would be extraordinarily difficult…The more likely scenario based on the new study and the most likely future pollution scenario is 2-3 °C by 2100…” click here for more

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