New Energy Geopolitics

Geopolitics and the Energy Transition: Competition or Cooperation?

Will Marshall, September 20, 2020 (Global Risk Insights)

“…[Like the shifts from wood to coal and from coal to oil, the climate change-propelled] shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, is likely to have transformative effects on the geopolitical landscape…Green technologies such as wind, solar and hydropower are projected to constitute 49% of global energy consumption by 2050, up from 26.2% in 2019, likely resulting in immense shifts in the global energy trade…[to] an increasingly regionalised pattern of energy distribution replacing the global marketplace… [High line losses associated with long-distance electrical transmission and the natural variation in weather conditions] will foster increased energy interdependence between neighbours…This may increase the potential for peace in regions plagued by petroleum-related violence, such as the Middle East, Africa and Latin America…

click to enlarge

...[But the energy transition may give rise to new strategic rivalries and geopolitical vulnerabilities with the rise of competition over critical rare] earth metals such as copper, graphite, lithium and cobalt… which are critical for renewable technologies…Such crises are exacerbated when they intersect with existing strategic tensions between neighbouring states and often threaten to spill over into open confrontation…Although renewable industries are projected to generate over 11 million new jobs worldwide by 2050, declining demand for coal and fossil fuel extraction may exacerbate economic dislocation…The energy transition thus presents a crossroads…Those who fail to adjust or diversify may see significant economic collapse…” click here for more

click to enlarge

Tweet