ORIGINAL REPORTING: The Coming EV Charging Load Must Be Managed

CA Gets It that the Power System Must Manage EV Charging

Herman K. Trabish, August 18, 2020 (California Current)

Editor’s note: With the new White House administration’s commitment to transportation electrification, this California concern will soon be a concern for most states.

California’s heat wave-induced blackouts came during evening peak demand spikes. If California fails to manage electric vehicle charging it could make those spikes a lot more common, according to new research.

California leads the U.S. with nearly 750,000 of the estimated 1.5 million U.S. light duty EVs. Electric vehicle sales rose over 60% in 2019. The Golden State’s goal is 5 million zero emission vehicles by 2030. But it will need 7 million to achieve its 60% renewables by 2030 goal, according to Southern California Edison.

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The U.S. could reach 24 million EVs by 2028 and approach 30 million by 2030, according to July research by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. More conservative 2030 estimates by Edison Electric Institute—19 million EVs—and the Brattle Group—20 million— confirm a rapidly growing national charging load.With 30 million electric cars, the U.S. power system’s peak charging load capacity could be overwhelmed. That is because EV owners are likely to charge their vehicles at home during the morning and evening peak demand periods, the Pacific Northwest Lab and others assume.

Unmanaged, the EV boom could add 10 GW/year to 20 GW/year of peak load nationally by 2030, according to new Brattle Group data. With its multiple zero-emission vehicles mandates, California would be a major contributor.

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Managing the charging load with EV-specific time-of-use rates or other price signals can more than double peak charging capacity to 65 million light duty vehicles. This rewards owners for shifting their charging away from peak periods and makes it expensive to charge during peaks.

There will be an estimated 200,000 medium duty electric vehicles and 150,000 heavy duty EVs by 2028. They can draw unprecedented high loads through direct current fast chargers, which fully charge vehicles in about 30 minutes, according to June 2020 National Renewable Energy Laboratory research. But those load spikes can be managed, NREL said. Truck stop-like charging substations should have the newest power conversion hardware and advanced algorithms to optimize the use of utility-scale renewables and storage…” click here for more

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