The World’s Path To Net Zero Emissions

Pathway to critical and formidable goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is narrow but brings huge benefits, according to IEA special report

18 May 2021 (International Energy Agency)

“The world has a viable pathway to building a global energy sector with net-zero emissions in 2050, but it is narrow and requires an unprecedented transformation of how energy is produced, transported and used globally…[According to an International Energy Agency special report, climate] pledges by governments to date… fall well short of what is required…[The report] sets out a cost-effective and economically productive pathway…[and] examines key uncertainties, such as the roles of bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes… The scale and speed of the efforts demanded by this critical and formidable goal – our best chance of tackling climate change and limiting global warming to 1.5 °C – make this perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced…

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…[T]he Roadmap sets out more than 400 milestones…By 2035, there are no sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars, and by 2040, the global electricity sector has already reached net-zero emissions……[It] calls for annual additions of solar PV to reach 630 gigawatts by 2030, and those of wind power to reach 390 gigawatts…[T]his is four times the record level set in 2020…[It calls for] the global rate of energy efficiency improvements averaging 4% a year through 2030 – about three times the average over the last two decades…[Emissions reductions through 2030] come from technologies readily available today. But in 2050, almost half the reductions come from technologies that are currently only at the demonstration or prototype phase…

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…A transition of such scale and speed cannot be achieved without sustained support and participation from citizens, whose lives will be affected in multiple ways…Providing electricity to around 785 million people who have no access to it and clean cooking solutions to 2.6 billion people who lack them is an integral part…This costs around $40 billion a year, equal to around 1% of average annual energy sector investment. It also brings major health benefits through reductions in indoor air pollution, cutting the number of premature deaths by 2.5 million a year…

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Total annual energy investment surges to USD 5 trillion by 2030… adding an extra 0.4 percentage points a year to global GDP growth…[This] creates millions of jobs in clean energy, including energy efficiency, as well as in the engineering, manufacturing and construction industries…[and makes] global GDP 4% higher in 2030 than it would reach based on current trends…

…In 2050, global] energy demand is around 8% smaller than today, but it serves an economy more than twice as big and a population with 2 billion more people. Almost 90% of electricity generation comes from renewable sources, with wind and solar PV together accounting for almost 70%. Most of the remainder comes from nuclear power. Solar is the world’s single largest source of total energy supply…Fossil fuels that remain are used in goods where the carbon is embodied in the product such as plastics, in facilities fitted with carbon capture, and in sectors where low-emissions technology options are scarce…

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Growing energy security challenges that result from the increasing importance of electricity include the variability of supply from some renewables and cybersecurity risks. In addition, the rising dependence on critical minerals required for key clean energy technologies and infrastructure brings risks of price volatility and supply disruptions… that could hinder the transition…” click here for more

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