New Energy Going Up, NatGas Use, Emissions Going Down

Short-Term Energy Outlook

June 8, 2021 (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

…We forecast that retail sales of electricity in the United States will increase by 2.3% in 2021 after falling by 3.9% in 2020. The largest increase in consumption will occur in the residential sector, where [due primarily to 1Q cold temperatures] we forecast retail sales of electricity will grow by 2.8% this year…[The forecast increase in electricity consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors reflects improving economic conditions in 2021…We expect the share of electric power generation produced by natural gas in the United States will [due to an average $4.09/MMBtu in 2021 compared with an average of $2.39/MMBtu in 2020price] average 36% in 2021 and 35% in 2022, down from 39% in 2020…

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…[The renewables share of U.S. generation [is forecast to] rise from 20% in 2020 to 21% in 2021 and to 23% in 2022…[T]he U.S. electric power sector added 14.8 gigawatts (GW) of new wind capacity in 2020. We expect 16.0 GW of new wind capacity will come online in 2021 and 5.3 GW in 2022. Utility-scale solar capacity rose by an estimated 10.5 GW in 2020. Our forecast for added utility-scale solar capacity is 15.5 GW 2021 and 16.6 GW for 2022…[plus] 4 GW to 5 GW of small-scale solar capacity…

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We estimate that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased by 11% in 2020 as a result of less energy consumption related to reduced economic activity and responses to COVID-19. In 2021, we forecast energy-related CO2 emissions will increase about 6% from the 2020 level as economic activity increases and leads to rising energy use…” click here for more

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