New Energy Not Growing Fast Enough – YET

Ten Years Of EIA And FERC Data Suggest Renewables Are Now On A Path To Provide 33-50% Of U.S. Electricity By 2030, Thus Falling Short Of Biden's Clean Power Goals...But Hitting 80% Remains Possible

Ken Bossong, July 22, 2021 (SUN DAY Campaign)

“…[The continued strong growth by renewable energy sources, unless accelerated,] will fall short of President Biden's clean power goals for 2030…[R]enewables could be one-third of U.S. electrical generation in 2030…[B]biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind…provided 22.5% of U.S. electrical generation during the first four months of 2021...[D]uring the first four months of 2011, renewables provided 13.75% of electrical production…[An average growth of] a bit less than one percent annually…Almost all the growth can be attributed to wind and solar which expanded from 3.3% in April 2011 (year-to-date) to 13.9% in April 2021 (YTD). Meanwhile, the share of electrical generation attributable to biomass, geothermal, and hydropower combined has remained virtually unchanged, accounting for between a bit less than 9% and a bit more than 10% each year…

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Should that trend continue, renewables would be on track to provide approximately one-third of U.S. electrical generation in 2030 with wind and solar combined providing about 23% and the combination of biomass, geothermal, and hydropower contributing another 10%...[T]his trend appears to be confirmed by EIA in its most recent monthly "Short-Term Energy Outlook" (STEO) which forecasts utility-scale renewables to grow from 19.8% in 2020 to 20.6% in 2021 and then to 22.5% in 2022. If small-scale solar were to be included, renewables were 20.6% of U.S. electrical generation in 2020 and are on track to exceed 21% in 2021 and 23% in 2022.[2]…

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FERC's data over the last decade further confirm likelihood of one-third renewables by 2030…[If higher growth rates (i.e., wind - 12% and solar - 30%) were replicated and sustained each year for the balance of the decade - an admittedly very challenging goal - wind could account for about 25% of U.S. electrical generation by 2030 while solar would be nearly 45%. Add in another 10% from hydropower, biomass, and geothermal and one reaches Biden's 80% target…A national clean electricity standard could make such a scenario - or comparable alternatives -realistic… click here for more

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