War And Global New Energy

Will the Ukraine war derail the green energy transition? As Europe scrambles to find alternatives to Russian oil and gas and global energy prices soar, coal could be the winner

Leslie Hook and Neil Hume, March 7, 2022 (UK Financial Times)

“…[C]oal use globally surged to record levels over the winter, causing emissions to rise, while clean energy installations fell below the levels needed to reach climate targets. And that was before Russia invaded Ukraine, precipitating a global energy crisis that has forced countries, especially in Europe, to look for ways to quickly wean themselves off Russian oil and gas, and reconsider timelines of commitments to cut the use of fossil fuels…[T]he shift away from fossil fuels has rarely looked more complicated…European leaders are urging the bloc to accelerate the transition to renewables in response to the war…[But even] before the war began, coal was enjoying a comeback as the surging post-pandemic economic recovery led to high demand for power…

click to enlarge

The war in Ukraine could boost coal demand even further, at least in the short term… [Spiralling gas prices make it] cheaper for some power stations to burn coal rather than gas even when the cost of carbon permits is taken into consideration…Last week, coal prices] hit more than $400 a tonne, from $82 a year ago…This year, Beijing is targeting 5.5 per cent gross domestic product growth, which implies a further increase in energy demand…[But] Beijing has pledged to cap its coal consumption during this decade…[and] many energy executives believe that a transition away from fossil fuels is still happening — if perhaps not as quickly, or as easily, as expected…

click to enlarge

…[C]oal use must fall by half this decade in order to stay on track…[while] electricity generation needs to increase 40 per cent in the same period…[But due to] logistical headaches and trade war woes, neither solar nor wind is on track to grow as much this year as it would in a net zero emissions scenario…[Global co-operation on climate change] must necessarily include big emitters such as China and Russia…[High energy prices could] make it harder politically for some countries to push through clean energy policies…[But some argue] the war has lent a new sense of urgency to the task of transitioning away from coal, oil and gas, which could prove to be a turning point…” click here for more

click to enlarge

Tweet