Global New Energy Caught In Ukraine-Russia Crossfire

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine—Transatlantic and Energy Implications

Megan Richards, March 29, 2022 (German Marshall Fund)

“The prices of fossil fuels—oil, gas, and in particular coal—have been rising over the second half of 2021 and early 2022 due to high demand post-Covid and supply constraints…The European Union’s reliance on Russian imports of natural gas and oil is an additional burden on costs…The EU imports about 75 percent of its gas via pipeline and about 25 percent via liquified natural gas (LNG)…[S]ince the 2009 Russia-Ukraine gas crisis, eight new LNG terminals have been added to boost LNG imports. Renewable energy production in the EU has increased significantly since 2010, but all EU member states are still net importers of energy…

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Some are concerned that EU governments may be reluctant to move forward with the clean energy transition…But there is no better time than now…High prices should be an incentive to move faster and further on energy efficiency efforts…[T]urning down thermostats by just one degree would reduce consumption by 10 bcm/year (40 percent of natural gas in Europe is used for heating)…The high cost of natural gas should be an added incentive to move faster…and bring down the price of ‘green’ hydrogen, produced from renewable energy sources…

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There should be only limited incentive to switch from natural gas to coal, which would hinder decarbonization efforts, as its price has also increased and the carbon price under the Emissions Trading System has increased significantly, providing a good disincentive for significant switching…EU consumers will certainly feel the impact of reducing demand for Russian oil and gas, particularly in a tight market where alternative supplies are limited, at least in the short term…but reliance on Russian gas and oil will have to reduce significantly and quickly to effectively implement energy security, the first principle of the EU Energy Union…” click here for more

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