The EV Tipping Point Is Now

US Crosses the Electric-Car Tipping Point for Mass Adoption; Once 5% of new-car sales go fully electric, everything changes — according to a Bloomberg analysis of the 19 countries that have made the EV pivot.

Tom Randall with Samuel Dodge, July 9, 2022 (Bloomberg News)

“…[As with smart phones, two decades ago, a] society-altering shift is happening now with electric vehicles, according to a Bloomberg analysis of adoption rates around the world. The US is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales powered only by electricity…[This] signals the start of mass EV adoption…Most successful new technologies — electricity, televisions, mobile phones, the internet, even LED lightbulbs — follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then surprisingly quickly once things go mainstream…

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In the case of electric vehicles, 5% seems to be the point when early adopters are overtaken by mainstream demand…[T]he adoption curve followed by South Korea starting in 2021 ends up looking a lot like the one taken by China in 2018, which is similar to Norway after its first 5% quarter in 2013…The next major car markets approaching the tipping point this year include Canada, Australia, and Spain…Including plug-in hybrids, 17 countries have crossed a 10% threshold…

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Behind every country that crossed an EV tipping point is a program of federal incentives and pollution standards…[T]he Biden administration last year issued an executive order calling for EVs to make up half of new [US] vehicles by 2030 (including plug-in hybrids)… Volkswagen, Ford, and BMW are each targeting 50% or more of their global sales to be fully electric by the end of the decade…[T]he share of fully electric vehicles worldwide passed the 5% threshold for the first time last year…[The 10% plug-in hybrids] tipping point will be passed sometime this year. If the trends holds true, accelerating demand can be expected.” click here for more

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