Consider Climate Endgame and Tipping Points –Scientists

Climate endgame: risk of human extinction ‘dangerously underexplored’ – Scientists say there are ample reasons to suspect global heating could lead to catastrophe

Damian Carrington, 1 August 2022 (UK Guardian)

“…The risk of global societal collapse or human extinction has been ‘dangerously underexplored’, climate scientists have warned…[Though a ‘climate endgame’ has] a small chance of occurring, given the uncertainties in future emissions and the climate system, cataclysmic scenarios could not be ruled out, they said…Explorations in the 1980s of the nuclear winter that would follow a nuclear war spurred public concern and disarmament efforts, the researchers said.

click to enlarge

The analysis proposes a research agenda, including what they call the ‘four horsemen’ of the climate endgame: famine, extreme weather, war and disease…[It argues there are too] few quantitative estimates of the total impacts…A thorough risk assessment would consider how risks spread, interacted and amplified…Particularly concerning are tipping points, where a small rise in global temperature results in a big change in the climate, such as huge carbon emissions from an Amazon rainforest suffering major droughts and fires.

click to enlarge

Tipping points could trigger others in a cascade and some remained little studied…such as the abrupt loss of stratocumulus cloud decks that could cause an additional 8C of global warming…[A] climate breakdown could exacerbate or trigger other catastrophic risks, such as international wars or infectious disease pandemics, and worsen existing vulnerabilities such as poverty, crop failures and lack of water…[S]uperpowers may one day fight over geoengineering plans to reflect sunlight or the right to emit carbon…

click to enlarge

New modelling in the analysis shows that extreme heat – defined as an annual average temperature of more than 29C – could affect 2 billion people by 2070 if carbon emissions continue…The current trend of greenhouse gas emissions would cause a rise of 2.1-3.9C by 2100. But if existing pledges of action are fully implemented, the range would be 1.9-3C. Achieving all long-term targets set to date would mean 1.7-2.6C of warming…” click here for more

click to enlarge

Tweet