Rising EU Prospects For Beating Russia In Energy War

Rising EU Prospects For Beating Russia In Energy War Too Much Gas. Europe’s Energy Crisis Takes a Surprise Turn; Gas storage push pays off, with prices down from summer peak; Much depends on the weather over the coming winter months

Vanessa Dezem, Anna Shiryaevskaya, and Rachel Moriso with Elena Mazneva and Andrew Reierson, October 25, 2022 (Bloomberg Green)

“Europe suddenly has more gas than it can use…Starved of the Russian imports on which its long relied, Europe has rushed to import liquefied natural gas from around the world to fill up storage. Now, a combination of unusually warm weather and successful bidding for cargoes means facilities are almost full before Europeans have even turned the thermostats up. Gas prices have also fallen back sharply, and are less than a third of their summer peak…Risks still lie ahead: much depends on the weather…

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…[A] cold snap would quickly see Europe dipping into its stockpiles. Governments are also on edge about the threat of more sabotage on energy assets that could upend the market. But at the end of October, the continent is in better shape than policy makers dared hope…[But forward] gas prices are soaring in Europe as winter gets underway…[which] means that reducing usage, despite the lure of lower prices, remains essential…[Gas demand reduction across 2022 is estimated at about 7-9%, but that] is short of the EU’s 15% target… European storage is 93.6% full and Germany is at 97.5%...

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…[And] the weather looks set to stay milder-than-usual well into November…[Best of all,] Northwest Europe is on track to receive 82 tankers of LNG this month, 19% more than in September. More vessels are staying longer in so-called floating storage in anticipation of higher prices and amid limited capacity to receive the fuel…[D]emand from Asia could pick up and Russia could still end flows of gas that transit Ukraine, either purposefully or through infrastructure damage as fighting continues. Both would add upward pressure on prices, and also make filling storage more difficult next year…” click here for more

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