Global Wind Report; Annual Market Update 2013
April 2014 (Global Wind Energy Council)
The Global Status Of Wind Power
In 2013
More than 35 GW of new wind power capacity was
brought online in 2013, but this was a sharp decline in
comparison to 2012, when global installations were in excess
of 45 GW In terms of overall investments the global wind
sector saw a small decline to USD 80 3bn (EUR 58 7bn1
) in
2013, down from USD 80 9bn (EUR 59 2bn) in 20122
The new global total at the end of 2013 was 318,105 MW,
representing cumulative market growth of more than 12 5
percent, strong growth for a manufacturing industry given the
economic climate, even though it is lower than the average
annual rate over the last 10 years of approximately 21 percent
At the end of 2012, the expectations for wind power market
growth were uncertain, as continued economic slowdown in
Europe and the political uncertainty in the US made it difficult
to make projections 2013 turned out to be another difficult
year for the industry, mainly due to the dramatic drop in the
US market after record installations in 2012
China, the largest overall market for wind since 2009, had
a good year, and once again gained the top spot in 2013
Installations in Asia again led global markets, with Europe
reliably in the second spot, and North America a distant third
A result of this was that in 2013, unlike in 2012, the majority
of wind installations globally were outside the OECD once
again This was also the case in 2010 and 2011, and is likely to
continue to be the case for the foreseeable future
By the end of last year the number of countries with more than
1,000 MW installed capacity was 24: including 16 in Europe;3
4 in Asia-Pacific (China, India, Japan & Australia); 3 in North
America (Canada, Mexico, US) & 1 in Latin America (Brazil)
By the end of last year six countries had more than 10,000 MW
in installed capacity including China (91,412 MW), the US
(61,091 MW), Germany (34,250 MW), Spain (22,959 MW),
India (20,150 MW) and the UK (10,531 MW)
China will at some point in 2014 cross the 100,000 MW mark,
adding another milestone to its already exceptional history of
renewable energy development since 2005 Largely driven by
China, Asia is likely to overtake Europe as the region with the
most deployed wind capacity by the end of 2014
Looking ahead, while 2014 is likely to be much better than
2013 in terms of overall installations, the picture is complex
across various regions Europe’s framework legislation and its
2020 targets ensure a degree of stability, but a wave of policy
uncertainty and the lack of clarity on its post 2020 regime for renewables, combined with the on-going economic crunch
means that the outlook for the 2014 market is subdued
The slowdown in Asia in 2012-2013 was a result of a
combination of factors, but these conditions are expected
to be short-lived, and Asian dominance of global wind
markets is expected to continue Market consolidation and
rationalisation in China is now almost over which could lead
to installations at 2010/11 levels A partial reinstatement of
support mechanisms (GBI) in India is likely to lead to a better
2014 outcome than in 2013, but the market is unlikely to
return to 2011 levels before 2015-16
Canada, Brazil and Mexico are expected to have strong years
in 2014, and more than five hundred megawatts from sub-Saharan Africa will come on line for the first time: in South
Africa, Ethiopia and possibly Kenya Global installations will
be further propped up by new projects coming on line in Japan,
Australia, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand
Although in the US, the Production Tax Credit expired again at
the end of 2013, the new PTC rules mean there will be strong
installations in 2014 and 2015, and a more comprehensive set
of tax reform legislation may be in the works.
Asia: China And India Remain At The Top
For the sixth year in a row, Asia was the world’s largest regional
market for wind energy, with capacity additions totaling just
over 18 2 GW
In terms of annual installations China regained its leadership
position, adding 16 1 GW of new capacity in 2013, a significant
gain over 2012 when it installed 12 96 GW of new capacity
In 2011, the new annual installed wind power capacity in China
(excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was 17 63 GW By
the end of 2011, its cumulative installed capacity was over
62 GW In 2011, China was the world’s second-largest wind
producer, generating 73 billion kWh, a level about 64% higher
than in 20104
In 2012, wind-generated electricity in China amounted to
100 4 billion kWh, accounting for 2 percent of the country’s
total electricity output, up from 1 5 percent in 20115
Wind
power generated 134 9 billion kWh of electricity in 2013,
up 34 percent year on year, contributing 2 6 percent of the
country’s total electricity generation.
China’s total installed electricity generation capacity was an
estimated 1,145 GW at the beginning of 2013 By the end of
2012, wind energy (5 percent) had the third largest installed
capacity after coal (66 percent) and hydropower (22 percent),
surpassing natural gas (3 percent) and nuclear (1 percent)7
By
the end of 2013, wind’s contribution had risen to 6 percent8
The Chinese wind market more than doubled its capacity
from 44 7 GW in 2010 to reach 91 4 GW by the end of 2013,
cementing China’s global lead in terms of cumulative installed
wind power capacity
Everyone has been surprised by the astonishing growth of
China’s wind sector since 2006, but it is now entering a more
steady development and refinement stage The pace of growth
in the Chinese wind energy market had in the period from
2010-12 outstripped the ability of the power grid and system
operators to manage it effectively Curtailment of electricity
generation became a new challenge for wind power projects
In 2011 alone, more than 10 billion kWh of wind power was
lost because the grid had no capacity to absorb it
In the meantime, however, the NEA and State Grid are working
to solve the transmission bottlenecks and other grid issues
The NEA is also actively encouraging wind farm development
in lower wind zones that are closer to load centers.
India today is the second largest wind market in Asia,
presenting substantial opportunities for both international
and domestic players The Indian wind sector has struggled in
the last couple of years to repeat the strong market in 2011
when over 3 GW was installed, and 2013 was a slower year
due to a lapse in policy in 2012
Nonetheless, India saw new wind energy installations of
1,729 MW in 2013, for a total of 20,150 MW This pace of
growth kept the Indian wind power market firmly in the top five
rankings globally As of January 2014, total wind installations
had risen to 20,298 8 MW bringing the total grid connected
renewable energy installations in the country to 30,177 9 MW9
By the end of 2012, renewable energy accounted for over
12 8% of total installed capacity, and about 5% of electricity
generation, up from 2% in 1995 Wind power accounted for
about 66% of total renewable energy capacity and about 8 6%
of the total installed capacity of 234 GW at the end of January
201410 With the acute need for electrification and rising power
consumption in the country, wind energy is going to provide an
increasingly significant share of the renewables based capacity
While the rest of Asia did not make much progress in 2013,
there are some favourable signs on the horizon.
The Japanese market saw new installations of 50MW in 2013
to reach a cumulative capacity of 2,661 MW This represents
around 0 5% of the total power supply in Japan After the
Fukushima accident in March 2011, Japan is slowly moving
towards a transformation of its energy system to allow for a
more diverse energy mix including more wind power and other
renewables However, removing existing barriers will still take
some time Offshore wind development, in particular floating
turbines, is a promising prospect for the future
The Government of South Korea made “green growth” one
of its national development priorities Although wind power is
still a relatively small energy generation technology in South
Korea, 2013 saw 79 MW of new installations onshore, which
brought the total installed capacity to 561 MW The Korean
government had earlier put forward a strategy for offshore
wind development with a target of 2 5 GW by 2019
Thailand added 111 MW of new capacity in 2013, bringing
its total up to 223 MW Pakistan commissioned another
large-scale commercial wind farm of 50 MW in 2013, with
total installed capacity reaching 106 MW by the end of the
year Taiwan added 43 MW of new capacity, bringing its
total installed capacity up to 614 MW As for the rest of Asia,
we expect new projects to come on line in Vietnam and the
Philippines in 2014.
North America: Record Installations In Canada
1,599 MW of new wind capacity came online in Canada in 2013,
making it the fifth largest market globally Compared to the
938 9 MW added in 2012, Canada’s wind power market saw
significant growth in 2013, its best year ever Wind power now
supplies approximately 3 percent of Canada’s electricity
Ontario leads Canada with more than 2,470 MW, now
supplying over 3% of the province’s electricity Ontario’s
Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) confirmed that
the production of wind energy in Ontario had doubled over the
past four years, from 2 3 to 5 2 TWh between 2009 and 201311
Quebec ranks a close second with 2,398 3 MW in installed
capacity Quebec is likely to see a total of 3,300 MW of wind
energy commissioned by 201512
The Canadian industry expects another record year in 2014
with the addition of almost 2,000 MW of new capacity, led by
Ontario and Quebec
Uncertain federal policies in the US continue to inflict a
‘boom-bust’ cycle on the country’s wind industry The US had
its strongest year ever in 2012, but 2013 saw a precipitous drop
in installations of over 92% year on year with just 1,084 MW
in new installations, most of that in the fourth quarter
The US is now home to over 61 GW of wind power capacity, up
from 60 GW in 2012 By the end of 2013, wind provided 5 23%
of total installed generation capacity in the US13
The production tax credit for wind and other renewable
energy technologies expired at the end of 2013 However, an
important provision was included in the American Taxpayer
Relief Act of 2012 (enacted in January 2013) allowing eligible
projects that were ‘under construction’ before January 1, 2014
to qualify for the PTC Although the US market came to a
near complete stop in 2013, the nature of the extension has
created a combined pipeline of over 12 GW of projects under
construction14
In terms of total capacity, Texas again leads the Top-5 rankings with 12,355 MW, followed by California
(5,830 MW), Indiana (5,178 MW), Illinois (3,568 MW) and
Oregon (3,153 MW) In the US, 29 of the 50 states have
firm RPSs, and seven states have renewable energy goals
According to AWEA, by the end of 2025 RPS markets will
drive the development of more than 63 wind equivalent
gigawatts (GWe) of new capacity15
Mexico installed 380 4 MW of new capacity to reach a total of
1917 MW by the end of 2013 Last year was an important year for
the wind industry in Mexico especially with the Constitutional
Amendment enabling energy reform in December 2013 The
market reforms for the electricity sector will have a significant
impact on the future of wind power in the country Mexico has
a target of 35% of electricity from renewable energy by 2024
2014 is set to mark a year of change for the wind industry in
Mexico thanks to the new legislation.
Europe: Stronger Than Expected Market
During 2013, 12,031 MW of wind power was installed across
Europe, with European Union (EU-28) countries accounting
for 11,159 MW of the total The 2013 figures reflect orders
made before the wave of political uncertainty that has swept
across Europe since 2011, which is taking a toll on the wind
power sector
There are now just over 117 GW installed in the EU-28, and a
total cumulative capacity of 121 4 GW for all of Europe Wind
is now meeting 8% of EU electricity demand, up from 7% at
the end of 2012, 6 3% at the end of 2011 and 4 8% at the end
of 2009
The overall EU installation levels mask significant volatility
across Europe In a number of previously healthy markets such
as Spain, Italy and France installations decreased significantly
compared to 2012, by 84%, 65% and 24% respectively
This has contributed to 46% of all new installations in
2013 being in just two countries (Germany and the United
Kingdom), a significant change compared to previous years
when installations were less concentrated and spread across
many more healthy European markets
Wind energy represented 32% of all new EU power capacity
installed last year, and investments of between EUR 13 bn and
EUR 18 bn Renewable power installations accounted for 72%
of new installations during 2013 - 25 GW of a total 35 GW of
new power capacity, up from 70% the previous year
2013 installations were led by Germany (29%), the UK (17%),
Poland (8%), Sweden (6%), Romania (6%), Denmark (6%),
France (6%), Italy (4%), Austria (3%) and all others accounted
for 12%
Offshore accounted for almost 14% of total EU wind power
installations last year, up from 10% in 2012 It was a record
year for offshore installations, with 1,567 MW of new capacity
grid connected
Currently, destabilized legislative frameworks, economic
crises and austerity measures being implemented across
Europe are hitting the wind industry The year ahead will be
tough, and the long-term prospects for the wind industry
are closely linked to the outcome of the debate over the EU’s
2030 targets for climate and energy
The German wind energy market continued its steady growth
in 2013, adding 3,238 MW to bring Germany’s total installed
capacity up to 34 25 GW The German wind industry expects
a solid 2014 as well
The Renewable Resources Act (EEG) will be amended some
time in 2014 Chancellor Merkel’s government agreed to
phase out nuclear power in favour of renewables; however, her
new coalition has talked about reducing the support available
to renewables
In January 2014, Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister
Sigmar Gabriel proposed a plan for the reform of the EEG The proposal includes a cap on renewables of 45% of German
electricity output by 2025, and of 60% by 2035 It also
stipulates a 10% to 20% cut in feed-in tariffs for onshore wind
and an annual cap to its expansion, as well as more hardship
for PV16 The German and European renewables industry has
been critical of the terms being discussed
The United Kingdom was the second largest market for
wind in Europe last year, adding 1,883 MW in 2013 of which
1,150 MW was onshore and 733 MW was offshore The UK
is the largest offshore wind market in the world with total
installations of almost 3,681 MW, accounting for over half of
the European (and global) offshore market
The UK Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC)
statistics released in February 2014 show that the amount of
electricity produced by wind grew 38% from 2012 to 2013 In
total the amount of electricity generated by wind grew from
5 5% in 2012 to 7 7% in 201317
Following on from the 2012 launch of the Offshore Wind Cost
Reduction Taskforce report, the UK government and industry
are working together through the Offshore Wind Programme
Board The UK’s offshore industry has signed up to a target
of reducing costs by 30% by 2020, based on the delivery of
18GW of offshore wind.
The other noteworthy European markets last year include
Poland, Sweden, Italy, Turkey and Denmark Poland has had
strong annual growth in the past couple of years despite a
difficult political environment for renewables It now has
a total installed capacity of 3,390 MW, up from 2,496 MW
in 2012, the ninth largest wind market in Europe Sweden
installed 724 MW in 2013 to reach a total installed capacity of
4,470 MW At the end of 2013, wind power accounted for 7%
of Sweden’s total electricity consumption
France’s wind capacity is also growing steadily and has now
reached 8,254 MW The French government set a target of
25 GW by 2020, but it looks like it will be hard pressed to meet
it Italy installed only 444 MW for a total of 8,552 MW, 65%
below its installations for 2012 Denmark installed 657 MW
for a total of 4,772 MW In 2013 wind power accounted for
over 33% of Denmark’s total electricity consumption
Turkey continued to be a growth market for wind power in
2013 It installed 646 MW for a total of 2,959 MW Looking
ahead, the future of Turkey’s wind sector looks very promising
Facing extensive impacts from domestic austerity measures
Spain continued to be the second largest market in the EU in
cumulative terms, but just 175 MW in new capacity was added
in 2013, to reach 22 9 GW of cumulative capacity The future
of the Spanish wind market at present is very uncertain.
Latin America: Growing Stronger, Brazil Leads
Wind power is reaching critical mass in a number of Latin
American markets, and the region has begun developing a
substantial wind power industry to complement its rich hydro
and biomass (and potentially solar) resources In the medium
to long-term, the demand for energy security and diversity of
supply is expected to foster the growth of wind power in Latin
America
For the second year in a row the Latin American market
installed over 1 GW of new capacity In 2012, six markets
in the region installed 1,225 MW of new wind capacity for
a total installed capacity of just over 3 5 GW In 2013, just
four markets including Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Uruguay
accounted for 1,163 MW of new wind power capacity for a
total installed capacity of 4 8 GW
Brazil once again led Latin America, adding 953 MW of new
capacity; although the projects were fully commissioned
not all of them could be given a grid connection before the
end of the year Brazil is one of the most promising onshore
markets for wind energy, for at least the next five years Brazil
contracted for a total of 4 7 GW of new wind power in 2013
in three auctions, and has a strong pipeline of almost 7 GW
to be completed by the end of 2015 Government projections
foresee 17 5 GW of wind power installed in the country by the
end of 2022
Chile added 130 MW to reach a total of 335 MW, and
Argentina added 76 MW of new capacity to bring its total
installed capacity up to 218 MW last year Both Chile and
Argentina are potentially promising markets, which have
substantial wind resources Uruguay added to its total tally
with the commissioning of 4 MW of new capacity, bringing its
total installed capacity up to 59 MW
In the Caribbean, the Dominican Republic added 52 MW of
new capacity last year, bringing the total installed capacity
across the Caribbean to 221 MW by the end of 2013
Pacific: Wind In Australia Gives Confidence
Total installed capacity across the region reached 3 8 GW last
year The Australian market added 655 MW in 2013 (up from
358 MW in 2012), bringing its total installed capacity up to
3,239 MW
According to recent research conducted by the Clean Energy
Council, wind farms have reportedly generated more than
AUD 4 bn (EUR 2 6 bn) in investment in Australia since their
introduction19
Last year Australia saw a new coalition government led
by Prime Minister Tony Abbott come to power During the
elections last year his party had stated that it would look
again at Australia’s Renewable Energy target, which mandates that 20% of Australia’s power should come from renewables
by 2020, with a 41 TWh annual generation goal from large-scale renewable sources A review panel has been constituted
and will report to the government by the middle of this year,
in time for its findings to be fed into an energy white paper
This policy uncertainty may jeopardize up to AUD18 bn
(EUR 11 6 bn) worth of investments and almost 30,000 jobs20
New Zealand and the rest of the Pacific did not add any new
wind power capacity in 2013
Africa And The Middle East
Africa and the Middle East are awakening to the opportunity
of their enormous wind power potential Growth in 2013 was
still small in absolute terms, with just 90 MW installed across
the region, for a cumulative total of 1,255 MW However,
the South African market will take off in 2014, and several
countries have announced long-term plans for installing
commercial scale wind power: Ethiopia, Morocco, Kenya,
Jordan, Tanzania and Saudi Arabia, among others
Africa’s wind resource is best around the coasts and in the
eastern highlands, but until last year it was in North and EastAfrica that wind power has been developed at scale This, too,
is where current national policies are set to grow the sector
further At the end of 2013, over 99% of the region’s total
wind installations of 1,255 MW were to be found across nine
countries - Egypt (550 MW), Morocco (291 MW), Ethiopia
(171 MW), Tunisia (104 MW), Iran (91 MW), Cape Verde
(24 MW), South Africa (10 MW), Israel (6 25 MW) and Kenya
(5MW).
Africa is likely to emerge as a new hot spot for wind energy
development with new projects in Ethiopia, Tanzania and
Mauritius coming online, along with a resurgence in Morocco
2014 will be a milestone for the South African market, where
up to 1 GW of new capacity will come online
2013: Slow Year Due To Policy Uncertainty
2013 was a market with downward pressure on prices through
oversupply in the turbine market; fierce competition with
incumbents; and a wave of downward revisions to support
mechanisms in an austerity driven economic landscape The
industry continues to be challenged to compete on a price basis directly with heavily subsidized fossil fuel and nuclear
energy plants, particularly in the OECD Having said that, all
the fundamental drivers for wind power development still
hold, and there is a need around the world for new power
generation, which is clean, affordable, indigenous, reliable and
quick to install…
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Plug-in Hybrids, The Cars That Will Recharge America
Oil On The Brain
