Monday Study – The Land New Energy Needs

Power of Place – West August 2022 (The Nature Consercancy)

Power of Place Principles

The following principles should guide energy planning and policy to achieve better outcomes for climate, conservation, and communities.

Better for Nature – Advance energy siting policies and solutions that limit negative impacts to natural areas and working lands.

Reliable – Ensure reliable clean energy for people.

Resilient – Plan for an energy system that can withstand the impacts of climate change by minimizing vulnerability to wildfires, flooding, and drought.

Affordable – Develop cost-effective clean energy pathways for consumers.

Equitable – Ensure front line communities have a lead role in our clean energy future as beneficiaries and decision-makers.

Clean – Accelerate clean energy deployment to reduce emissions and pollution.

Introduction

In 2019 The Nature Conservancy released the Power of Place California report analyzing the land use requirements and conservation impacts of clean energy pathways in the state. This unprecedented effort showed that it is possible to largely avoid impacts to natural areas and working lands while decarbonizing the electricity sector. Just as important, the study showed California can achieve both climate and conservation goals without increasing costs or decreasing reliability. Since then, six western states1 have set clean energy goals that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Power of Place –West expands on the California study by including economy-wide energy demand in the eleven Western Interconnection states. The analysis includes the power, transportation, heating, and manufacturing sectors as well as a full suite of carbon neutral energy technologies (e.g., solar, onshore and offshore wind, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen, nuclear, gas with carbon capture, and direct air capture).

The Power of Place –West study was designed to answer several questions including:

• How much clean energy will be needed to achieve economy-wide net-zero emission reductions by 2050?

• How much land and ocean area will be required for the clean energy transition?

• How will protecting sensitive natural areas and working lands affect energy costs?

• What are the implications of renewable and carbon-neutral energy technology choices on natural and working lands, costs, and the pace of build-out?

The study shows the scale and pace of energy infrastructure build-out in the region will be unprecedented and, enormous, but surprisingly affordable. It also highlights that the western United States is endowed with abundant and diverse renewable energy resources interspersed with some of the most intact natural areas and productive working lands in the country. This study demonstrates we can achieve our climate goals with 21 million acres, or less, of new energy infrastructure by 2050.

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The Power of Place –West study shows the West can achieve both climate and conservation goals. Three topline findings indicate: 1) The West can achieve net-zero economy-wide reductions by 2050 while avoiding most sensitive natural areas and working lands; 2) energy planning that includes land use considerations can dramatically reduce conservation impacts with minimal additional cost; and 3) combining rapid electrification, renewable energy, and the full array of carbon neutral energy technologies is an optimal approach.

To take advantage of these findings we need to act now. The West has a few years to improve energy policies and planning to fully account for environmental impacts and engage local stakeholders to accelerate deployment in low-impact areas. Not doing so will spark greater local resistance and associated delays and cost increases, putting mid-century net-zero emission goals at risk.

Key Results

The Power of Place –West study primarily considers two net-zero scenarios, a ‘high electrification’ scenario and a ‘renewables only’ scenario, to supply the 1.7 to 2.5 terawatts of clean energy and fuels needed to power the west, economy-wide, in 2050. These two scenarios represent the economywide decarbonization approaches most frequently considered in state and federal policy settings. These scenarios are not predictive. Each scenario illustrates different decarbonization approaches that can be used to identify policies and processes needed to achieve net-zero.

We can achieve economy-wide net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions across the West while avoiding most sensitive natural areas and working lands. With existing legal land use restrictions, the model identified the development of up to 39 million acres of new clean energy infrastructure and transmission to meet net-zero. With improved statewide and regional energy planning and siting practices, we can avoid the conversion of almost 50% of those lands, including 10 million acres of high-quality habitat, and achieve our climate and conservation goals by developing just 21 million acres in areas with lower conservation value. Clean energy infrastructure development, under existing land use constraints, is likely to cause widespread impacts to habitats, wildlife, prime agricultural lands, and local communities across the western United States.

Impacts to sensitive natural and working lands can be avoided at minimal additional cost. By 2050, the 2018 net present value of the investment in the clean energy transition is $260 billion dollars in the West. The total cost of the clean energy transition will increase by 3% by 2050 when we commit to protecting the most important natural areas and working lands in the West and take advantage of all available low-carbon energy technologies in the ‘high electrification’ scenario. If we limit technologies in the ‘renewables only’ scenario, the cost of getting to net-zero with increased environmental protection is 10% higher, as seen in Figure 1.

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High voltage transmission capacity needs can be met through a combination of co-location, reconductoring, and strategically sited new transmission corridors. The current high voltage transmission network in the West totals 86,000 miles. More than half of the additional capacity needed to support net-zero in the West can be achieved by targeting grid upgrades (i.e., reconductoring) and co-locating additional capacity within 6,700 to 7,600 miles of existing electrical utility rights-of-way (ROW), as seen in the table in Figure 2. The length of new ROW corridors needed for additional high voltage transmission lines under the ‘high electrification’ scenario is only 6,259 miles. The model sites as much as 16 GW of transmission capacity in these new ROW corridors. There are many ways to accommodate additional capacity in a new corridor. Some ROW corridors will need to be sized up to allow for multiple high voltage transmission lines. Minimizing the development of new ROW corridors could reduce barriers associated with ROW permitting. More efficient use of new ROWs means that it is possible to more than double the megawatt-miles of transmission, while only increasing total distance of lines by 7-8%. Figure 2 illustrates the potential electrical transmission corridors by 2050 under the ‘high electrification’ scenario.

A high level of environmental protection creates a shift away from wind in the Intermountain West to solar in the Southwest. High quality wind resources are more sensitive to higher levels of environmental protection because they utilize more land area and, therefore, intersect with terrestrial and avian wildlife corridors. When we increase protection of natural areas and working lands, we can expect a shift from onshore wind in the interior western states to more solar in California and the Southwest, closer to substations and demand centers, as illustrated in Figure 3.

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Offshore wind accounts for 10-20% of the wind necessary to achieve net-zero in 2050 and less than 1 million acres of ocean area. The relative abundance of on shore wind resources in the West and long transmission distances to load centers contributes to less demand for offshore wind. Between the ‘high electrification’ scenario and the ‘renewables only’ scenario the range of offshore wind needed is between 16-26 GW within 50 nautical miles of the West Coast by 2050. Figure 4 illustrates the off shore wind potential and ocean areas for potential development when we increase environmental protections

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Working lands will host a significant share of new solar, wind, and transmission development. A significant amount of infrastructure required for the clean energy transition will be sited on prime agricultural lands if we continue with business as usual — as many as 2.7 million acres. With improved statewide and regional energy planning and siting practices, we can avoid solar siting on prime farmland and focus new energy development on marginal2 agricultural lands.

Annual build rates and land requirements vary considerably across clean energy pathways. The ‘high electrification’ scenario will require a four-fold increase in the construction rate of clean energy infrastructure by 2050 with a buildout of 21 million acres of land. Going with ‘renewables only’ technologies will require an eight-fold increase in the current construction rate by 2050 and 26 million acres of land.

The ‘high electrification’ scenario is the optimal decarbonization pathway for climate and conservation. When we take advantage of all commercially available clean energy technologies to achieve our 2050 climate goals, we use less land, limit costs, require less transmission, and we increase the likelihood of successfully accelerating the rate of construction of clean energy infrastructure by mid-century. Reducing the need for new clean energy transmission and infrastructure, in the long run, will reduce the potential for conflicts with important conservation lands.

We have only a few years to create plans, policies, and incentives to facilitate low-impact clean energy deployment. The need for dramatic expansion and development of clean energy infrastructure will accelerate later in this decade and it is imperative that we invest now in West-wide energy planning efforts to chart low-impact pathways to our net-zero future. These proactive steps are critical if we are to achieve the pace and scale of clean energy deployment necessary to meet our climate goals while ensuring that natural areas and working lands are protected.

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Policy Recommendations

The Power of Place –West study demonstrates a significant amount of land will be required to deploy solar, wind, transmission, and other clean energy technologies as part of an economy-wide effort to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in the United States. As western states set renewable or clean energy and GHG emission reduction goals, it is important that land and water use, equity, and climate impacts are considered in the energy transition. Not considering these values may result in harm to wildlife, ecosystems, cultural resources, vulnerable communities, and iconic landscapes, perpetuate climate change impacts, generate community opposition, and delay the transition to clean energy.

The following policy recommendations are informed by Power of Place –West study results:

1 Improve energy and decarbonization planning to maximize community, conservation and economic benefits.

Six western states have ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by 2050 or earlier. To achieve these goals, it is imperative coordination among local, state, regional, and federal planning and permitting organizations be improved. Long-term decarbonization and energy planning should factor in climate, land and water conservation, and community goals to achieve optimal outcomes and win broad public support. To achieve these goals, Power of Place –West provides a framework to guide clean energy planning efforts:

• Use spatially explicit energy planning to identify and designate ‘Priority Renewable Energy Areas,’ or those areas where high-quality wind or solar development will maximize community benefits and grid resiliency, while avoiding significant negative environmental and social impacts.

• Prioritize investments in co-locating transmission lines and reconductoring existing lines while continuing to plan for new low-impact transmission investments when connecting ‘Priority Renewable Energy Areas’ to demand centers.

• Adopt an inclusive participatory planning process to ensure that economic and environmental benefits and burdens from decarbonization are shared equitably. Engage indigenous and frontline communities in guiding clean energy infrastructure and land use planning decision-making.

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2 Streamline review of projects in ’Priority Renewable Energy Areas’ by federal, state, and local governments.

Every economy-wide net-zero scenario requires a significant buildout of renewable energy in the coming decades. Policies and funding should incentivize and facilitate development of renewable energy infrastructure — new generation, transmission, and storage — in areas with high resource potential, low conflict, and where transmission investments are optimized.

• Design and implement regional programmatic approaches to environmental review in ‘Priority Renewable Energy Areas

• Expedite permitting and approval processes for projects in designated ‘Priority Renewable Energy Areas,’ where programmatic environmental reviews have already been completed.

• Prioritize and incentivize low-conflict transmission infrastructure investments that connect ‘Priority Renewable Energy Areas’ to demand centers.

3 Develop state and federal mitigation programs that require clean energy infrastructure to avoid, minimize, or offset impacts to wildlife, ecosystems, cultural resources, and iconic landscapes.

This approach reinforces the value of Priority Renewable Energy Areas and supports a more consistent and predictable application of mitigation requirements across the West.

4 Ensure energy siting on working lands benefits agricultural communities.

Approximately half of wind and solar projects in the West are now being deployed on lands classified as agricultural. Clean energy infrastructure can either be integrated into agricultural operations or sited on marginally productive and retired farmlands to minimize competition for land and maximize co-benefits for farmers.

• Adopt state and local policies to allow clean energy infrastructure (including battery storage and emerging technologies such as direct air capture) as a permitted use in agricultural zones, especially non-prime farmlands.

• Consider the use of special exceptions3 for clean energy infrastructure on non-prime agricultural lands. Criteria for special exceptions, or variances, might include reasonable setbacks, grading and filling impacts on soil productivity, and/or management of stormwater.

• Consider the use of Community Benefit Agreements with energy developers and utilities to ensure that the benefits of the clean energy transition, such as local grid reliability and energy independence, accrue locally.

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5 Create a West-wide market that includes planning and coordination to develop the most cost-effective and reliable grid. The Power of Place - West study indicates that there are a multitude of benefits of an interconnected regional grid, including the potential savings of $2B from avoided infrastructure costs.

6 The energy technologies we choose on the path to carbon neutrality matter.

The Power of Place – West study demonstrates the ‘high electrification’ scenario, which takes advantage of all commercially available clean energy technologies, is optimal for achieving our climate and conservation goals. Energy efficiency and distributed energy are necessary in all economy-wide scenarios as we make this clean energy transition. Taking advantage of existing, commercial low and no-carbon fuels and technologies to meet our energy needs between now and 2050 can reduce costs and the demand for new renewable energy infrastructure and transmission. Federal, state, and local energy policies, should provide flexibility around clean energy technologies to allow for a cost-effective transition that minimizes impacts to natural and working lands…

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The First Modern Worldwide Energy Crisis

Turmoil and price volatility in global energy markets will continue, threatening to tip economies around the world into recession, according to the International Energy Agency head. From CNBC International TV via YouTube

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A Five Step Strategy For The New Energy Transition

The objectives: Central station New Energy on better transmission routes and local New Energy with better public support. From Stride Renewables via YouTube

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What New Energy Needs Now

New Energy is the part of the equation now being put into place. The next challenge is to figure out how and when and where to best use it. From Engineering with Rosie via YouTube

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A “Global Energy Crisis” As New Energy Emerges

World is in its ‘first truly global energy crisis,’ says IEA chief

October 26, 2022 (Reuters via CNN)

“Tightening markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide and major oil producers cutting supply have put the world in the middle of ‘the first truly global energy crisis,’ [according to Executive Director Fatih Birol]…Rising imports of LNG to Europe amid the Ukraine crisis and a potential rebound in Chinese appetite for the fuel will tighten the market as only 20 billion cubic meters of new LNG capacity will come to market next year…[And the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+ oil production cut] is a ‘risky’ decision as the IEA sees global oil demand growth of close to 2 million bpd this year…

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Soaring global prices across a number of energy sources, including oil, natural gas and coal, are hammering consumers at the same time they are already dealing with rising food and services inflation. The high prices and possibility of rationing are potentially hazardous to European consumers as they prepare to enter the Northern Hemisphere winter…Europe may make it through this winter, though somewhat battered, if the weather remains mild…

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…G7 nations have proposed a mechanism that would allow emerging nations to buy Russian oil but at lower prices to cap Moscow’s revenues in the wake of the Ukraine war…The energy crisis could be a turning point for accelerating clean sources and for forming a sustainable and secured energy system…Many countries in Europe and elsewhere are accelerating the installation of renewable capacity by cutting the permitting and licensing processes to replace Russian gas…” click here for more

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Rising EU Prospects For Beating Russia In Energy War

Rising EU Prospects For Beating Russia In Energy War Too Much Gas. Europe’s Energy Crisis Takes a Surprise Turn; Gas storage push pays off, with prices down from summer peak; Much depends on the weather over the coming winter months

Vanessa Dezem, Anna Shiryaevskaya, and Rachel Moriso with Elena Mazneva and Andrew Reierson, October 25, 2022 (Bloomberg Green)

“Europe suddenly has more gas than it can use…Starved of the Russian imports on which its long relied, Europe has rushed to import liquefied natural gas from around the world to fill up storage. Now, a combination of unusually warm weather and successful bidding for cargoes means facilities are almost full before Europeans have even turned the thermostats up. Gas prices have also fallen back sharply, and are less than a third of their summer peak…Risks still lie ahead: much depends on the weather…

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…[A] cold snap would quickly see Europe dipping into its stockpiles. Governments are also on edge about the threat of more sabotage on energy assets that could upend the market. But at the end of October, the continent is in better shape than policy makers dared hope…[But forward] gas prices are soaring in Europe as winter gets underway…[which] means that reducing usage, despite the lure of lower prices, remains essential…[Gas demand reduction across 2022 is estimated at about 7-9%, but that] is short of the EU’s 15% target… European storage is 93.6% full and Germany is at 97.5%...

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…[And] the weather looks set to stay milder-than-usual well into November…[Best of all,] Northwest Europe is on track to receive 82 tankers of LNG this month, 19% more than in September. More vessels are staying longer in so-called floating storage in anticipation of higher prices and amid limited capacity to receive the fuel…[D]emand from Asia could pick up and Russia could still end flows of gas that transit Ukraine, either purposefully or through infrastructure damage as fighting continues. Both would add upward pressure on prices, and also make filling storage more difficult next year…” click here for more

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ORIGINAL REPORTING: Extreme Events Force CA Leaders to Face “Necessary Evils” For Reliability

Extreme Events Force CA Leaders to Face “Necessary Evils” to Protect Grid Reliability

Herman K. Trabish, July 27, 2022 (California Current)

Editor’s note: Until it is more confident that the power supply is secure, it is pretty clear California will keep its NatGas in service and is exploring extending the life of its nuclear plant.

Growing concerns about California’s power system necessitates the recent extraordinary steps by legislators to safeguard reliability, a key member of the California Energy Commission told Current during a recent interview.

Since California’s 2020 blackouts, state regulators have authorized new energy supply, but Gov. Newsom’s signing of AB 205/SB 122 June 30 will help meet additional projected urgencies, CEC Vice Chair Siva Gunda said. The measure allocates $5.2 billion for a Strategic Reliability Reserve Fund, which includes $550 million for a Distributed Electricity Backup Assets Account, and extends operations of environmentally threatening generating facilities.

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By 2025, California may add 20 GW to 30 GW of nameplate capacity but unexpected factors beyond regulators’ control have slowed the rate of building, Gunda said. The possible “near term shortfall” from higher demand “could take three to five years to close,” he added.

Even if California catches up to previously planned additional resource targets, there are shortfall risks from regional heatwaves driving demand up or wildfires disrupting transmission access to out-of-state energy supplies. Those kinds of events threaten “California’s ability to build out the electrical infrastructure,” making “extraordinary near-term measures and substantive changes to mid-term energy policy,” necessary, AB 205 concluded.

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In 2019, the CPUC authorized 3.3 GW of “backfill procurement” for coastal natural gas plants long scheduled for closure because of harms to ocean waters, said Gunda. And, in 2021, it authorized 11.5 GW of new supply by 2025 for the 2.2 GW Diablo Canyon nuclear facility retirement, other economic retirements, and load growth. Now, however, both the natural gas plants and Diablo operations could be extended.

Since 2020, California has faced accelerating reliability pressures from recurring peak demand crises, more severe climate projections and volatility, renewables supply chain constraints, interconnection delays, permitting issues, and a federal solar tariff import disruption, Gunda said. Because of the significant risk-from lagging procurement, the budget bills authorize spending for at least 5 GW of clean energy in 2022 and up to 10 GW more for 2025. The urgency to protect the state’s power system reliability goes beyond the state because “if the lights go off in California, momentum for the climate effort in the rest of the country could be at risk,” Gunda said… click here for more

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The Challenge Of Land For New Energy

Solar and wind farms can hurt the environment. A new study offers solutions

Sammy Roth, October 6, 2022 (LA Times)

“…[It could increase energy bills 3% to build the clean energy infrastructure needed to replace fossil fuels] over the next 30 years without triggering blackouts or causing electricity costs to rise too much…[According to a new study by the Nature Conservancy], the American West can generate enough renewable power to tackle climate change even if some of its most ecologically valuable landscapes are placed off-limits to solar and wind farms — without causing costs to spiral out of control…

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…[S]olar and wind have become just about the cheapest sources of new electricity on the market…[And that will improve significantly thanks to the Biden infrastructure and climate bills, but] finding places to build..[is limited by] intense opposition from conservationists dedicated to protecting habitat for migratory birds, sage grouse and desert tortoises — and from local residents who see industrial energy infrastructure as a threat to their small-town way of life…[The study concluded it will take 26 million acres and $260 million through 2050 in a model that] assumed the only places off-limits to solar and wind farms were areas already protected by law, such as national parks and wildlife refuges…

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[But it concluded it will take 21 million acres and $269 million for] blocking renewable energy development in many other areas — including wetlands, critical habitat for endangered species…migration corridors and the best agricultural soils…[The smaller land footprint used several strategies, including] building fewer wind farms in the West’s windiest states…and more solar farms in the sunny desert Southwest…[Solar farms require less land and] can be built closer to big cities with ‘only’ 6,259] miles of habitat-disrupting power lines…[R]eality is more complicated…[The key] is collaboration and planning…[and avoiding the pitfalls of] politics and economic self-interest…” click here for more

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Monday Study – A Serious Look At A 100% New Energy Power System

Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

Paul Denholm, Patrick Brown, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Brian Sergi, August 2022 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Executive Summary

This study evaluates a variety of scenarios that achieve a 100% clean electricity system (defined as zero net greenhouse gas emissions) in 2035 that could put the United States on a path to economywide net-zero emissions by 2050. These scenarios focus primarily on the supply of clean electricity, including technical requirements, challenges, and benefit and cost implications. The study results highlight multiple pathways to 100% clean electricity in which benefits exceed costs. The study does not comprehensively evaluate all options to achieve 100% clean electricity, and it focuses largely on supply-side options.

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This Report and the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law

The analysis presented in this report was conducted prior to the passage of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, which include incentives for and investments in clean energy technologies along with other energy system modernization provisions. Initial analyses estimate that the energy provisions of these new laws can help lower U.S. economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. 1 . The impacts of these provisions are expected to be most pronounced for the power sector, with grid emissions initially estimated to decline to 68-78% below 2005 levels by 2030 and the share of generation from clean electricity sources estimated to rise to 60-81%. Investments in end-use sector decarbonization measures, including efficiency and electrification, are also supported by the IRA provisions. While the longer-term implications of these new laws are more uncertain, they are unlikely to drive 100% grid decarbonization and the levels of electrification envisioned by 2035 in the primary scenarios analyzed in this report.

More specifically, existing state and federal policies relevant to the power sector as of October 2021 are represented in the modeled scenarios; none of the scenarios presented in this report includes the energy provisions from the IRA or BIL, or other newer enacted federal or state policies or actions. As the addition of IRA and BIL provisions are not expected to enable the U.S. power system to reach 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, their inclusion is not expected to significantly alter the 100% systems explored in this study. As such, the study’s qualitative findings for the implications of achieving 100% are expected to still apply. However, given the potential significant impact of these new laws, the incremental differences between the Reference and 100% scenarios are expected to be lower than estimated here. Including IRA and BIL provisions would likely lower emissions in the Reference scenarios, resulting in a smaller gap between them and the 100% scenarios. As a result, the incremental electricity system costs of the 100% scenarios are expected to be lower with the inclusion of the IRA and BIL provisions. Similarly, the climate and air quality benefits of the 100% scenarios (relative to the Reference scenarios) would also be reduced. These changes have not been quantified and it is important to note that the analysis in this report does not provide any estimates of the impacts of these new laws.

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100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Scenarios

We evaluated four main 100% clean electricity scenarios, which were each compared to two reference scenarios: one with “current policy” electricity demand (Reference-AEO)2 and a second with much higher load growth through accelerated demand electrification (ReferenceADE). The Reference-ADE case includes rapid replacement of fossil fuel use with low-carbon alternatives across all sectors, including electrified end uses and low-carbon fuels and feedstocks, resulting in annual electricity demand that is 66% higher than in the Reference-AEO case in 2035. The four core scenarios apply a carbon constraint to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035 under accelerated demand electrification and reduce economywide energy-related emissions by 53% in 2030 and 62% in 2035 relative to 2005 levels.

Table ES-1 summarizes the four primary scenarios evaluated, which represent a range of uncertainties and themes (e.g., technology availability) and which are described below. In each scenario, assumptions common to all scenarios are called “reference,” and details are provided in the main body and Appendix C.

• All Options is a scenario in which all technologies continue to see improved cost and performance consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Annual Technology Baseline (NREL 2021). This scenario includes the development and deployment of direct air capture (DAC) technology, while the other three main scenarios assume DAC does not achieve the cost and performance targets needed to be deployed at scale.3

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• Infrastructure Renaissance assumes improved transmission technologies as well as new permitting and siting approaches that allow greater levels of transmission deployment with higher capacity.

• Constrained is a scenario where additional constraints to deployment of new generation capacity and transmission both limits the amount that can be deployed and increases costs to deploy certain technologies.

• No CCS assumes carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies do not achieve the cost and performance needed for cost-competitive deployment. This scenario also acts as a point of comparison to demonstrate the potential benefits of achieving cost-competitive deployment of CCS at scale. This is the only scenario that includes no fossil fuel capacity or generation in 2035, and therefore it is the only scenario that includes zero direct GHG emissions in the electric sector.

Beyond the four core 100% scenarios, 142 additional sensitivities were also analyzed to capture future uncertainties related to technology cost, performance, and availability. Of these 142 sensitivities, 122 cases model 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035. We also evaluated all scenarios with a sensitivity case using electricity demand from the Long-Term Strategy of the United States (LTS) (White House 2021a) to reflect an alternative demand-side pathway to reaching a net-zero emissions economy by 2050. The LTS reflects higher levels of energy efficiency and demand-side flexibility, resulting in slower annual load growth of 1.8%/year (compared to 3.4%/year under ADE) and, importantly, lower demand peaks that occur predominantly in summer as compared to the sharp winter peaks assumed for our primary ADE scenarios. In addition to direct electricity demand, both ADE and LTS assumptions include demand for clean hydrogen production for transportation and industrial applications, which may be produced from electrolysis or from natural gas with CCS depending on scenario. Non-power sector demand for hydrogen is an input to the analysis; however, hydrogen demand for electricity generation (for seasonal storage) is also considered and is an outcome of the scenarios. Electricity generation and capacity needed to produce hydrogen—for both power and non-power applications—are also considered in the modeling.

Across these scenarios, this work uses NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to identify the resulting least-cost investment portfolios from a range of different generation, storage, and transmission technologies while considering the significant geographical variation in demand and resource availability, including the regional and temporal variations in the output of renewable resources. The geographical and temporal variability of various resources is evaluated by ReEDS, including additional transmission costs needed for remote resources and the need to maintain an adequate supply of energy during all hours of the year. A detailed list of limitations of the modeling approach and key caveats regarding scope, and cost elements included is provided in the Key Caveats section (Section 2.4, page 17).

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Scenario Deployment Results

Achieving a 100% clean electricity system requires significant clean energy deployment, and a summary of the results from the 100% scenarios is provided in Figure ES-1, including generation capacity, annual generation, average annual installation rate, and transmission capacity. graphic

Based on assumed growth in demand due to end-use electrification, and electric demand associated with hydrogen production (for direct use or for production of other clean fuels), total electricity generation grows by about 95%–130% from 2020 to 2035. Total generation is shown for all end-use loads (dotted line in Figure ES-1Figure ) plus the additional generation needed for transmission losses and generation used by the electric sector to produce hydrogen for seasonal electricity storage. There are differences between scenarios in absolute amounts of generation based on differences in storage (and associated losses) and hydrogen production. The need for new generation capacity would be even higher without the energy efficiency and demand-side flexibility measures assumed in the ADE trajectory. Results from the LTS sensitivity cases result in a 16%–20% reduction in the need for new installed capacity compared to the ADE cases due, in part, to the higher levels of energy efficiency assumed in LTS.

Wind and solar provide most (60%–80%) of the generation in the least-cost electricity mix in all the main scenarios. Nuclear capacity more than doubles in the Constrained scenario, reaching 27% of generation, while limited growth in the other three core scenarios results in a contribution of 9%–12%, largely from the existing fleet. The overall generation capacity grows to roughly three times the 2020 level by 2035, including a combined 2 TW of wind and solar. This would require growth rates in the range of 43–90 GW/year for solar and 70–145 GW/year for wind by the end of the decade, which would more than quadruple the current annual deployment levels for each technology in many scenarios. Across the four core scenarios, 5–8 GW of new hydropower is deployed by 2035 by adding capacity at unpowered dams and uprates at existing facilities, while geothermal capacity increases by about 3–5 GW by 2035.

Differences in energy contribution among the four core scenarios are largely driven by constraints in transmission and renewable siting. In all scenarios, significant transmission is constructed in many locations, and significant amounts are deployed to deliver energy from wind-rich regions to major load centers in the eastern United States. Total transmission capacity (which is a mix of AC and HVDC depending on scenario) in 2035 is 1.3–2.9 times current capacity. Beyond already planned additions, these total transmission builds would require 1,400– 10,100 miles of new high-capacity lines per year, assuming new construction began in 2026.5 ***The Infrastructure Renaissance scenario constructs the most transmission and wind, and it results in the lowest average system cost…

Based on assumed cost declines of renewable energy technologies, the pathway to achieving roughly 90% clean electricity is fairly consistent across the scenarios, and wind and solar provide the most generation in three of the scenarios, supplemented by significant nuclear deployment in the Constrained scenario. The variation between the scenarios is largely focused on the specific technologies that can most cost-effectively meet peak demand and can contribute to the last 10% of clean generation. This is reflected largely in the differences in capacity contribution among the four scenarios, which are driven by multiple factors, including uncertainty about technology availability at scale in the coming decades.

The main uncertainty in reaching 100% clean electricity is the mix of technologies that achieves this target at least cost—particularly considering the need to meet peak demand periods or during periods of low wind and solar output. The analysis demonstrates the potentially important role of several technologies that have not yet been deployed at scale, including seasonal storage and several CCS-related technologies. The mix of these technologies varies significantly across the scenarios evaluated depending on technology cost and performance assumptions…

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Benefits and Costs of 100% Clean Electricity

Achieving 100% clean electricity produces benefits that, in most scenarios, outweigh the additional direct costs relative to a reference scenario. Figure ES-4 (top) shows the reduction in fossil fuel use. Compared to Reference-AEO, the electrification that occurs in the ReferenceADE scenario leads to substantial reductions in (1) petroleum use in transportation and (2) natural gas in buildings and industry by 2035. Moving to the 100% clean electricity scenarios further reduces fossil fuel use in the power sector.9 This fossil fuel reduction leads to a 54% reduction in GHG emissions compared to 2020 (bottom). Reduction of particulates, SO2, and other emissions in the electric sector leads to an estimated 40,000–130,000 avoided premature deaths between 2020 and 2035 due to improved air quality.

Figure ES-5 compares the system costs against a limited set of emissions-related benefits. System costs include capital, fixed, and variable costs associated with generation and transmission, but they do not include administrative costs or costs of maintaining or upgrading the distribution system. The figure shows an estimate of the net present value of the evaluated costs and benefits from 2023 to 2035, presented as differences between the 100% scenarios and Reference-ADE. The left bar in each scenario represents the system costs with a negative value (meaning additional cost) of $330 billion to $740 billion, which represents the additional costs of achieving 100% clean electricity compared to the Reference-ADE scenario.

The Constrained and No CCS scenarios have the greatest increase in direct costs…All the core scenarios (and sensitivities) produce benefits that exceed costs, even when using the lower SCC values…

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Implications and Future Research

The rapid reduction in the costs of renewable and several other clean energy technologies over the past two decades allows for continued large-scale deployments that are expected to generate benefits that substantially outweigh the associated power system cost, assuming these technology cost declines continue in the coming decades. However, achieving the transformation of the U.S. energy system to 100% clean electricity as envisioned in these scenarios requires four challenging actions to occur in the next decade:

1. Dramatically accelerating electrification and increasing the efficiency of the demand sectors to get the country on the path to net-zero emissions by midcentury. Electrification will dramatically increase demand, which in turn may make it more difficult to decarbonize the electricity system due to the higher rate of generation and transmission capacity additions needed. However, electrification of end uses in buildings (with a critical parallel focus on efficiency of those end uses) and much of transportation and industry is likely a key part of the most cost-effective pathway to achieving largescale decarbonization across the economy. Furthermore, a parallel focus on efficiency and flexibility of end uses has the potential to greatly impact generation supply needed. More flexible operation could provide higher utilization of generation, transmission, and distribution assets, lowering the delivered cost of electricity. To achieve decarbonization of all energy sectors by 2050, further electrification, low- to zero-carbon fuel production, energy efficiency, and demand flexibility measures will be needed.

2. Installing new energy infrastructure rapidly throughout the country. This includes siting and interconnecting new renewable and storage plants at rates of three to six times recent levels, potentially doubling or tripling the capacity of the transmission system, upgrading the distribution system, building new pipelines and storage for hydrogen and CO2, and/or deploying nuclear and carbon management technologies with low environmental disturbance and in an equitable fashion to all communities.

3. Expanding clean technology manufacturing and the supply chain. The unprecedented deployment rates for clean electricity technologies envisioned in the 100% scenarios requires a corresponding growth in raw materials supply, manufacturing facilities, and trained workforce throughout the supply chain. Further analysis is needed to understand how to achieve the scale-up of manufacturing as part of a just transition to a clean electricity system. This includes evaluating the economic and energy security benefits of increasing domestic manufacturing.

4. Accelerating research, development, demonstration, and deployment to bring emerging technologies to the market. Technologies that are being deployed widely today can provide most U.S. electricity by 2035 in a deeply decarbonized power sector. A 90% clean grid can be achieved at low incremental cost by relying primarily on new wind, solar, storage, advanced transmission, and other technologies already being deployed at scale today. However, the path from 90% to full decarbonization is less clear, as many of the technologies that could best aid full decarbonization, such as clean hydrogen and other low-carbon fuels, advanced nuclear, price-responsive demand response, CCS, and DAC, have not yet been deployed at large scale. A concerted research, development, demonstration, and deployment effort is needed to reduce costs and improve performance to enable these technologies to be commercialized at scale and support a fully decarbonized grid.

This ambitious list of tasks will require explicit support to be achieved in the coming decade. Failing to achieve any of these actions could increase the difficulty of realizing a 100% clean grid by 2035. However, damages from climate change are not binary, so even if emissions reductions fall short of those envisioned in the scenarios here, significant harm to human health, economies, and the ecological system can be avoided by making progress toward decarbonization…

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Drying Mississippi River Hits U.S. Economy

If barges on the river don’t run, the U.S. economy doesn’t run. And there is little relief in the forecast. From ABC News via YouTube

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The NatGas Boom That Could Beat Putin

If the liquified natural gas (LNG) industry ramps up fast enough, it could undermine Putin’s plan to freeze the EU out of supporting Ukraine this winter. That leaves a lot of “ifs” and “what then” questions unanswered, but war is about right now. From Financial Times via YouTube

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The EU’s Long Term New Energy And Beat Russia Ambitions

In the long term, Russia’s fossil fuels will be as arcane as campfires in caves. The question is how to get through this winter. From EuroScola via YouTube

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Global Climate Demands New Energy

World Meteorological Organization - Clean Energy Must Double By 2030

11 October 2022 (United Nations Climate Change Agencies)

“The supply of electricity from clean energy sources must double within the next eight years to limit global temperature increase…[The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of Climate Services annual report] highlights the huge opportunities for green powered grids to help tackle climate change, improve air quality, conserve water resources, protect the environment, create jobs and safeguard a better future for us all…

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…[By 2050, global electricity needs] will mainly be met with renewable energy, with solar the single largest supply source. African countries have an opportunity to seize untapped potential and be major players in the market…[because] Africa is home to 60% of the best solar resources globally, yet with only 1% of installed photovoltaic capacity…[More can and must be done, but] investment in renewable energy is much too low, especially in developing countries and too little attention is paid to the importance of climate services for energy to support both climate adaptation and decisions on how to reduce greenhouse gases…

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…Climate change is putting energy security at risk globally…Water resources are scarce…Climate action plans must prioritize energy…But current pledges by countries fall well short of what is needed to meet the objectives set by the Paris Agreement, leaving a 70% gap in the amount of emissions reductions needed by 2030…Investments in renewables need to triple by 2050…In the energy sector, studies have demonstrated the economic value…” click here for more

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New Energy To Take Over By 2050

'Renewables to provide 83% power generation in 2050'; Electricity production’s share in global energy mix will more than double over the next 30 years, says DNV

13 October 2022 (ReNews.Biz), October 13, 2022

“…[DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook] forecasts renewables will account for 83% of electricity production by 2050…mainly because of the growing and greening of electricity production…Electricity production will more than double and its share will grow from 19% to 36% of the global energy mix over the next 30 years…Solar PV and wind are already the cheapest form of electricity in most locations and by 2050 they will grow 20-fold and 10-fold respectively and will dominate electricity production with 38% and 31% shares…

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…Renewables expenditure is expected to double over the next 10 years to more than $1300bn per year, and grid expenditure is likely to exceed $1000bn per year in 2030…European gas consumption will fall dramatically as a result of the war in Ukraine…[and in 2050] it will meet just 10% of Europe’s energy demand…compared with 25% today...

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…[But high] energy and food prices are reversing the coal-to-gas switch and putting a dampener on decarbonization investments…[T]he share of gas in the Indian subcontinent’s energy mix will reduce from 11% to 7% in the next five years, while the share of coal will increase…[The date] the EV share of new vehicle sales surpasses 50% has been delayed by one year to 2033…” click here for more

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ORIGINAL REPORTING: California’s Plan To Use Customers’ Resources With Real Time Prices

Regulators Propose Combining Distributed Resources and Real Time Pricing to Allow Customer Generation to Support the Grid

Herman K. Trabish, July 7, 2022 (California Current)

Editor’s note: This ambitious plan would move California’s economy – the fifth biggest in the world – to a power market that allows customers to benefit from real time electricity prices.

California just took another big step toward bringing more customer-owned rooftop solar, batteries, and electric vehicles into its evolving power system.

Use of these distributed energy resources can be expanded by making real time electricity prices directly available to them and third-party aggregations of distributed energy resources, according to a June 22 California Public Utilities Commission Energy Division White Paper and Staff Proposal.

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Smart DERs, like those controlled by smart thermostats or smart inverters, now only play a very small role in the state’s power mix. But real time pricing, based in actual electricity market prices, would allow them to help stabilize and strengthen the California Independent System Operator’s power system.

Real time pricing, modified by fixed charges, would resolve questions about compensation for DERs, staff said. Appropriately rewarding customer-owners when their DERs quickly respond to CAISO needs for reliability or resilience is a type of demand response that can make the power system more “flexible” than it was with traditional but less instantly responsive forms of generation, like nuclear power.

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This novel approach to “demand flexibility” brings together work in 15 or more CPUC and California Energy Commission proceedings, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory research, the paper said. Simpler options, like flat subscription rates, would allow other customers to continue to pay “a predictable, pre-determined price” for hourly usage, it added.

There also are challenges from rapidly rising penetrations of customer-controlled DERs and variable utility-scale renewables, staff said. But policy supporting demand flexibility can take advantage of DERs’ opportunities and limit the challenges. Behind-the-meter distributed resources, “if aggregated, coordinated, and shaped properly at scale,” can “play a major role” in resolving growing reliability and resilience challenges, staff observed. But current DR programs and policies “may have become a barrier” to enabling that potential, it added… click here for more

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New Energy Is Waiting

Wind and Solar Are Booming, but Emissions Aren’t Falling

Benjamin Storrow, October 4, 2022 (EE News/ClimateWire)

Wind and solar generation surged 22 percent through the first nine months of the year, building on a period of record-breaking renewable energy installations last year…The growth has helped fill a gap in electricity production created by the falling use of coal, which is down 8 percent through September…But emissions impact of the renewable boom has been blunted by the growth of natural gas generation, which is up 7 percent, and falling output from nuclear facilities…[Power sector emissions fell] 1 percent through the first half of the year…

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A big question is whether the United States can sustain the growth in renewable generation. The climate and health bill passed by Congress in August will direct nearly $370 billion to low emission projects over the next decade. But renewable energy developers face growing headwinds from the economic downturn, supply chain bottlenecks and transmission constraints…

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…[Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory] found that 674 gigawatts of utility-scale solar was waiting to connect to the grid in transmission queues around the country. That is roughly ten times the amount of solar installed in the United States to date…[And utility-scale] solar installations produced 104 terawatt-hours of electricity through September, a 30 percent increase over the same time last year…Wind generation was nearly 325 TWh through the first three quarters of this year, a 19 percent increase over that time period in 2021 and a 53 percent rise since 2019. Wind and solar now account for roughly 14 percent of U.S. power generation…” click here for more

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This Week’s Study – Green Hydrogen Growth Documented

Hydrogen Insights 2022; An updated perspective on hydrogen market development and actions required to unlock hydrogen at scale

September 2022 (The Hydrogen Council)

Executive Summary

*The pipeline of hydrogen projects is continuing to grow, but actual deployment is lagging. 680 large-scale project proposals worth USD 240 billion have been put forward, but only about 10% (USD 22 billion) have reached final investment decision (FID). While Europe leads in proposed investments (~30%), China is slightly ahead on actual deployment of electrolyzers (200 MW), while Japan and South Korea are leading in fuel cells (more than half of the world’s 11 GW manufacturing capacity).

*The urgency to invest in mature hydrogen projects today is greater than ever. For the world to be on track for net zero emissions by 2050, investments of some USD 700 billion in hydrogen are needed through 2030 – only 3% of this capital is committed today. Ambition and proposals by themselves do not translate into positive impact on climate change; investments and implementation on the ground is needed.

*Joint action by the public and private sectors is urgently required to move from project proposals to FIDs. Both governments and industry need to act to implement immediate actions for 2022 to 2023 – policymakers need to enable demand visibility, roll out funding support, and ensure international coordination; industry needs to increase supply chain capability and capacity, advance projects towards final investment decision (FID), and develop infrastructure for cross-border trade.

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The pipeline of hydrogen projects is continuing to grow, but actual deployment is lagging. In 2022 some 680 large-scale hydrogen project proposals, equivalent to USD 240 billion in direct investment through 2030, have been put forward – an investment increase of 50% since November 2021. Yet, only about 10% (USD 22 billion) have reached final investment decision.

Europe is home to over 30% of proposed hydrogen investment globally. However, other regions are leading the implementation on the ground: 80% of operational global low-carbon hydrogen production capacity is in North America, while China has surpassed Europe in electrolysis with 200 megawatts (MW) operational, versus 170 MW in Europe, driven by strong government support. South Korea and Japan, in turn, are leading on fuel cells, driven by strong government and corporate ambitions: more than half of the 11 gigawatts (GW) of global fuel cell manufacturing capacity is located there, and Japan has ramped up deployment of hydrogen-ready combined heat and power (CHP) plants, with 425,000 such systems installed.

The urgency to invest in mature hydrogen projects today is greater than ever. The rebound of carbon emissions to above pre-COVID levels, the invasion of Ukraine, and the growing concerns around energy security resulting from the war in Europe make one thing clear: our economies need clean hydrogen, and action is needed to convert proposals into actual deployment. Out of the more than 680 projects announced, 45 projects worth USD 29 billion are in the front-end engineering design (FEED) phase and 120 projects worth USD 80 billion are undergoing feasibility studies.

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However, only USD 22 billion (about 10% of proposals) have reached final investment decision (FID) or are under construction or operational. This number has only grown by USD 2 billion in the last half year, significantly slower than growth in project announcements.

The key barrier that project developers face today is a lack of demand visibility – many are awaiting decisions on the enabling regulatory frameworks and funding to incentivize offtakers to enter longterm hydrogen supply contracts. Such long-term offtake is key to unlocking project finance and support from financial investors.

Capturing the maximum climate value of hydrogen to deliver the 2050 net zero target requires a tripling of investment in hydrogen by 2030 to USD 700 billion – in other words, additional investments of USD 460 billion into hydrogen projects through 2030. This sounds enormous but in fact is equivalent to less than 15% of the investment committed to upstream oil and gas in the past decade. Across the value chain, investment in infrastructure connecting supply and demand is particularly lagging as visibility on demand is lacking, with an investment gap of more than 80% between project proposals and what is needed to reach net zero.

Joint action by the public and private sectors is urgently required to move from project proposals to FIDs. For policy ambition and project proposals to materialize into actual investments and start delivering environmental and socio-economic benefits, enabling conditions are necessary today. Below, a set of mutually reinforcing priority actions for policymakers and industry for 2022 to 2023 to progress from proposals to investments, scale up hydrogen deployment in regions and enable global hydrogen trade (Exhibit 1). These are critical for moving from ambition to action, accelerating hydrogen deployment.

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Policy - Priority actions for 2022-2023:

1. Enable demand visibility and regulatory certainty by adopting legally binding measures. Create demand visibility through measures such as targets or quotas for hydrogen consumption across end-use sectors, alongside public procurement measures or competitive bidding for (carbon) contracts for difference. This will bridge the gap to cost competitiveness, boost investor confidence and have a ripple effect throughout the value chain, enabling investments in hydrogen supply, equipment manufacturing, and infrastructure.

2. Fast-track access to public funding for hydrogen projects. Introduce measures such as grants, loans, tax credits, as well as funding support schemes based on competitive bidding. Policymakers across geographies have put forward plans to roll out the relevant instruments designed to stimulate hydrogen uptake. Right now, it is crucial to move from vision to action, and proceed with the implementation of these instruments. Rapid rollout of support schemes for hydrogen will lift mature projects off the ground and accelerate hydrogen deployment to support global climate goals within this decade, while bringing the costs further down.

3. Ensure international coordination and support credible common standards and robust tradeable certification systems. A common standard methodology for assessing all hydrogen production pathways is essential to allow the hydrogen with the lowest carbon footprint to reveal its climate benefits. Robust certification systems are instrumental in building consumer trust and paving the way for global hydrogen trade, which in turn will support scale-up and minimize hydrogen cost.

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Industry - Priority actions for 2022-2023:

1. Advance project proposals to FID by committing to funding and resource deployment. As regulatory certainty is being strengthened and funding support starts rolling out, industry should commit to deploying resources to mature projects towards FID by conducting feasibility and FEED studies to realize the USD 240 billion project proposals. Furthermore, new projects must continue to be developed to bridge the USD 460 million investment gap to net zero toward the end of this decade. Project developers should focus on building long-term relationships between hydrogen suppliers and offtakers, and actively mitigate the perceived risk of investing in hydrogen projects by staging projects and by working with established partners with strong track records.

2. Scale up hydrogen supply chain capability and capacity. As government targets translate into regulatory action and confidence in a sustained demand outlook, commit to increasing supply chain capability and capacity. The industry should start ramping up capacity to enable deployment at scale. Alignment and synchronization between the policy, infrastructure, and end-use applications is essential. The industry needs to ensure the project proposals and equipment (e.g., electrolyzers) are available as the industry scales. Supply chains must be readied, and only industry can do it. Increasing renewable power capacity at scale remains vital to scale up renewable hydrogen deployment.

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3. Build infrastructure for cross-border trade. Global trade unlocks the full benefits of hydrogen as transportable, clean energy. But project proposals to develop hydrogen infrastructure are lacking, and industry should concentrate its efforts toward establishing infrastructure to enable cross-border trade (e.g., through building out terminals, large-scale storage, and hydrogen conversion technologies). As international cooperation between governments advances, the industry should actively help to prioritize actions to enable international trade flows match supply and demand in an efficient manner…

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